U.S. natural gas futures on Monday extended their decline to a third session, hitting the lowest since mid-July on a weakening demand outlook and higher inventories.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 fell 25.7 cents, or 3.8%, to $6.57 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), by 9:52 a.m. EDT (1352 GMT), after touching $6.526 – their lowest since July 15 – earlier in the session.
Moderating temperatures and a little bit of a resurgence in inventory injections are driving prices lower, said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy at StoneX Financial Inc. EIA/GAS
“The intensity of the falling is a result of high volatility in the market. It went up pretty fast so it is obviously going down pretty fast.”
Data provider Refinitiv forecasted 76 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next fortnight, down from their estimate of 88 CDDs on Friday. CDDs, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day’s average temperature is above 65 Fahrenheit (18 Celsius).
Meanwhile, Ian has strengthened into a hurricane and is expected to produce significant wind and storm surge impacts in western Cuba, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in its latest advisory on Monday.
Hurricane Ian could bring rain to the southeast United States, likely leading to some demand destruction, Saal said, but added that prices would find some good technical support near $6.40-$6.50.
Oil prices hit nine-month lows on Monday, driven by an expected decline in fuel demand as rising interest rates raise the likelihood of a global recession, with further price pressure coming from a surging U.S. dollar. O/R
“This (natgas) market appears poised for further price slippage with potential bearish spill over from the oil complex accentuating price declines that now appear capable of testing the $6.35 mark per the November gas contract during the coming 1-2 weeks,” energy consulting firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
