NEW YORK – Oil prices jumped over 2% on Tuesday on the possibility OPEC+ will extend or deepen supply cuts, a storm-related drop in Kazakh oil output and a weaker U.S. dollar. Brent crude futures were up $1.88, or 2.4%, at $81.86 a barrel by 11:03 a.m. EST (1603 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.84, or 2.5%, to $76.70.
OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, is due to hold an online ministerial meeting on Thursday to discuss 2024 production targets.
The talks will be difficult and a rollover of the previous agreement is possible rather than deeper production cuts, four OPEC+ sources said.
The market tumbled last week when OPEC+ pushed back the original date for its meeting to iron out differences on production targets for African producers.
“Even with the disagreement, the possibility of keeping the deal as is for another month remains high,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.
One possible compromise could involve Angola and Nigeria accepting reduced production targets for a few months if targets for the other countries were likewise lowered, said Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch.
“According to delegates, Saudi Arabia is demanding lower production quotas from the other OPEC+ countries. While Kuwait has signaled that it would be willing to do so, some countries are apparently resisting any such move.”
The United Arab Emirates is likely to oppose this, given that its 2024 production target was increased at its urging when OPEC+ held its previous meeting in early June, he added.
Oil also found support from a weak dollar, an expected decline in U.S. crude inventories and the drop in Kazakh output.
Kazakhstan’s largest oilfields have cut their combined daily oil output by 56%.
Four analysts polled by Reuters estimated that the latest round of weekly U.S. supply reports will show crude inventories fell by about 2 million barrels.
The first of this week’s two reports is due at 2130 GMT from the American Petroleum Institute.
The U.S. dollar sank to a three-month low on Tuesday after U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller flagged the possibility of lowering the Fed policy rate in the months ahead if inflation declines further.
A weaker dollar typically bolsters oil demand, making dollar-denominated oil less expensive for buyers using other currencies.
In the Middle East. Israeli forces and Hamas fighters held their fire beyond the original deadline of a truce, extended at the last minute by at least two days to let more hostages go free.
(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly; additional reporting by Alex Lawler, Natalie Grover and Sudarshan VaradhanEditing by Kim Coghill, David Goodman and David Gregorio)
