(Oil & Gas 360) – During the Cold War the United States had a clear strategy on which it could hang its foreign policy. That strategy changed from containment to Reagan’s “We win, they lose” strategy so the policies changed but there was always a strategy. To prevail in foreign affairs, a strategy is the first requirement to provide guidance for policies which, in turn, guide actions taken in individual situations to implement the overall strategy. A successful strategy rests on a foundation of various abilities to take necessary action.
Proclaiming strategic doctrine or policies without the will or ability to implement the necessary actions leads to a loss of credibility. Conversely, action taken without a guiding strategy leads to scattershot expenditures of resources with no benefit.
As the Cold War came to an end, so did the foreign policy strategy that ended it. The foreign policy establishment in academia, think tanks, government agencies, and politics who agreed with Francis Fukuyama (an academic think tank participant with no experience in private enterprise) determined that conflict had ended, and all the world would be a group of benign democracies. Therefore, no foreign affairs strategy or policies were considered necessary, and none were developed except the Strategy of Wishful Thinking.
During the decade following the end of the Cold War, the 1990s, that seemed to be fine. But threats were developing, and the US did not prepare for them. The attack on 9/11, 2001 was a wakeup call and a complete intelligence failure and surprise. With no strategic concept, the G. W. Bush Administration impulsively retaliated with poorly considered invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, destabilizing the Middle East. It then had no exit strategy and proceeded to mismanage its involvement in both sectors for years at a high cost of lives, resources, and credibility. Still believing in Fukuyama’s Strategy of Wishful Thinking for much of the world, and no strategic long-term thinking, the US sponsored China into the World Trade Association.
When in trouble, when in doubt,
Run in circles, scream and shout
The Obama Administration, for some reason, mostly depended on people with Ivy League law degrees for foreign affairs advice. They also failed to formulate a coherent strategy or seemingly even recognize the need for one. So, they floundered like fish on the beach. ISIS rose up in the Middle East and spread its brutality over much of Syria and Iraq. Thus, mismanagement of the Arab Spring de-stabilized Egypt and Libya with four Americans, including the Ambassador, killed in a botched response in Tripoli. “Red lines” were declared but not acted on. Obama opened the southern US border, mocked Mitt Romney for saying Russia was a threat, ignored China’s growth, declared a “pivot” to the Indo-Pacific but did not act upon it, and tried a “reset” of relations with Russia which descended into a farce with a red button. That Administration further de-stabilized Ukraine’s politics, paid Iran hundreds of millions of dollars and agreed to a plan for Iran to develop nuclear weapons. Obama continued epic mismanagement of US affairs in Afghanistan and Iraq.
The Trump Administration reacted to several problems. It rolled back ISIS and crushed its influence, moved the Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, stabilized relations with Egypt and Saudi Arabia and negotiated the Abraham Accords between Arab countries and Israel, toughened trade relations with China, negotiated new free trade agreements with Canada, Mexico, Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea, negotiated an exit from Afghanistan with no Americans killed for over a year, kept Bagram Air Force Base, and was the only American President to order several hundred Russians killed. His Administration’s efforts were cut short by the Covid-19 pandemic before an overall strategic doctrine was developed.
Over the past three decades it became more and more apparent Fukuyama’s concept of the world was a dream but nevertheless, no guiding strategy or policies were formed – even until now. The need has been long recognized but not acted upon.
The Biden Administration came in with Joe Biden supposedly strong on foreign policy although Robert Gates, who served both Democrat and Republican administrations, claimed Joe Biden was on the wrong side of every foreign policy decision for the last 40 years. Within a short time, it was obvious things went from bad to worse. Secretary of State Blinken sat in a meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, being berated by a Chinese delegation for over two hours. After that came the calamitously mismanaged evacuation from Afghanistan. Wokeness was imposed on the military and its budgets were cut. Vague pronouncements indicated the Administration indicated it planned to resume the “pivot” from the Middle East to Southeast Asia. Biden antagonized Saudi Arabia and then went on bended knee to beg for additional oil production, which was not only refused but production was increased in a clear show of contempt.
These messages of US weakness were received loud and clear by US adversaries in Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing. Russia invaded Ukraine. Iran used Hamas to attack Israel. US responses were fumbling and incomplete. The mental decline of the US President manifested itself with an Administration that could not make up its mind what to do. Its proposals were inconsistent, unrealistic, and ignored. In international meetings last spring the condition of the President became obvious for all to see. Biden was replaced as a presidential candidate but not as President. The US became a country with no one in charge.
Various degrees and types of international conflict are directed against the United States and its allies. These range from Russia’s open warfare with Ukraine and threats against NATO countries, Israel’s expanding war with Iran and its proxies, China’s economic, cyber, and political attacks, spying, and subversion, to China’s increasing pressure on Taiwan.
With technological advances and the overhanging threat of nuclear escalation, one can expect World War III will be nothing like World Wars I and II. Neither the President nor Vice President is paying attention. One can but wonder if the United States is already in WWIII and nobody in the US government knows it.
By Dr. Charles Kohlhaas for oilandgas360.com
