Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.-11/09/2022- (NYSE: NOG) (“NOG”) today announced the company’s third quarter results.
THIRD QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS
- Record quarterly production of 79,123 Boe per day (57% oil), an increase of 37% from the third quarter of 2021
- Third quarter GAAP cash flow from operations of $276.8 million. Excluding changes in net working capital, cash flow from operations was $269.3 million, an increase of 7% sequentially from the second quarter of 2022
- Capital expenditures of $154.5 million during the third quarter (excluding non-budgeted acquisitions) were higher because of accelerated activity and strong Ground Game execution
- Free Cash Flow of $110.6 million during the third quarter, an increase of 99% from the third quarter of 2021. See “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” below
- Announced $110.0 million core Midland Basin acquisition in August 2022, which closed in October 2022
- Increasing 2022 well count, production and capital expenditure guidance and adjusting operating cost and pricing differential guidance
SHAREHOLDER RETURN HIGHLIGHTS
- Declared $0.30 per share common dividend for the fourth quarter of 2022, an increase of 20% from the third quarter
- Repurchased $38.7 million of common shares in the third quarter and October 2022, for a total of $51.5 million year-to-date at an average price of $28.42 per share (1.81 million shares)
- Retired $10.0 million principal amount of 8.125% Senior Unsecured Notes at an average price of 94.8% of par value in the third quarter and October 2022, for a total of $23.4 million year-to-date at an average price of 96.7% of par value
- On November 8, 2022, exercised right to cause a full conversion of the 6.5% Series A Perpetual Convertible Preferred Stock into shares of common stock, which will be effected on November 15, 2022
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE: NOG) (“NOG”) today announced the company’s third quarter results.
MANAGEMENT COMMENTS
“Significant volume growth helped NOG achieve record Adjusted EBITDA and cash flow once again this quarter, more than offsetting lower oil prices,” commented Nick O’Grady, NOG’s Chief Executive Officer. “We continue to see accelerating activity on our properties and strong Ground Game reinvestment opportunities. This increasing velocity, combined with our high quality larger acquisitions, is setting the stage for substantial growth in cash flows and returns for 2023.”
THIRD QUARTER FINANCIAL RESULTS
Oil and natural gas sales for the third quarter were $534.1 million. Third quarter GAAP net income was $583.5 million or $6.77 per diluted share. Third quarter Adjusted Net Income was $154.7 million or $1.80 per diluted share, an increase of 5% from the second quarter of 2022. Adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter was $292.4 million, an increase of 7% from the second quarter of 2022. See “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” below.
PRODUCTION
Third quarter production was 79,123 Boe per day, an increase of 9% from the second quarter of 2022 and an increase of 37% from the third quarter of 2021. Oil represented 57% of total production in the third quarter. Oil production was 45,107 Bbls per day, an increase of 8% from the second quarter of 2022 and a 33% increase over the third quarter of 2021. NOG had 16.2 net wells turned in-line during the third quarter, compared to 10.1 net wells turned in-line in the second quarter of 2022. Production increased quarter over quarter, driven primarily by growth in NOG’s Permian production, which made up approximately 26% of volumes in the third quarter. Additionally, Williston volumes recovered from weather-related shut-ins experienced in the second quarter and NOG benefited from a partial quarter contribution from the Williston Basin acquisition, which closed on August 15, 2022. Marcellus production was up 2% from the second quarter, a reflection of strong results from the most recent development pad, and represented 17% of total volumes.
PRICING
During the third quarter, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) crude oil averaged $91.38 per Bbl, and NYMEX natural gas at Henry Hub averaged $7.95 per million cubic feet (“Mcf”). NOG’s unhedged net realized oil price in the third quarter was $90.54, representing a $0.84 differential to WTI prices. NOG’s unhedged net realized gas price in the third quarter was $8.43 per Mcf, representing approximately 106% realization compared with Henry Hub pricing.
OPERATING COSTS
Lease operating costs were $68.5 million in the third quarter of 2022, or $9.41 per Boe, a ~4% decrease on a per unit basis compared to the second quarter of 2022. The decrease in unit costs was driven primarily by the reduction in firm transportation costs incurred in the previous quarter, slightly offset by some modest increases in lifting and processing costs. Third quarter general and administrative (“G&A”) costs totaled $10.3 million or $1.41 per Boe. This includes $2.9 million of legal and transaction expenses in connection with acquisitions and $1.3 million of non-cash stock-based compensation. NOG’s cash G&A costs excluding these amounts totaled $6.0 million or $0.82 per Boe in the third quarter, down 12% from the prior quarter on a unit basis.
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AND ACQUISITIONS
Capital expenditures for the third quarter was $154.5 million (excluding non-budgeted acquisitions). This was comprised of $136.6 million of total drilling and completion (“D&C”) capital on organic and ground game assets, and $17.9 million of ground game acquisition spending and other items. The primary drivers of increased spending from the second quarter were increased development activity (wells-in-process increased by 4.5 net wells) and significant Ground Game success in August and September 2022. NOG has experienced moderate well cost inflation in 2022, but year-to-date well costs have been within NOG’s assumptions for the year. The weighted average AFE elected to in the third quarter was $8.6 million, but the related wells had longer average laterals than the second quarter, and normalized for lateral length third quarter AFEs increased a modest 5% over the second quarter.
NOG’s Williston Basin spending was 53% of the total capital expenditures for the quarter, the Permian was 46%, and other items were 1%. On the Ground Game acquisition front, NOG closed on five transactions during the third quarter totaling 2.0 net well locations and 965 net acres, a marked increase from the second quarter and a significant driver of increased capital investment.
As previously announced, during August 2022, NOG completed its Williston Basin acquisition with a $158.0 million cash settlement at closing. NOG subsequently announced additional Permian Basin acquisitions on August 17, 2022 (Midland Basin, closed on October 3, 2022), September 30, 2022 (Alpha Energy Partners, anticipated closing December 2022), October 11, 2022 (Additional Delaware Basin, anticipated closing December 2022), and October 19, 2022 (MPDC Mascot Project, anticipated closing January 2023). In total, the pending acquisitions have a combined unadjusted purchase price of $617.5 million, with earn-out provisions in the Alpha Energy Partners acquisition that could generate a maximum of an additional $22.5 million in consideration.
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
NOG had total liquidity of $418.1 million as of September 30, 2022, consisting of cash of $9.1 million, and $409.0 million of committed borrowing availability under the revolving credit facility. Additionally, NOG had acquisition deposits of $28.5 million as of September 30, 2022, which will be used to partially fund pending acquisitions.
As of September 30, 2022, NOG had $726.6 million of 8.125% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2028 outstanding, a decrease from $750.0 million at December 31, 2021. As of September 30, 2022, NOG had $164.4 million of liquidation preference value of 6.5% Series A Perpetual Convertible Preferred Stock outstanding, a decrease from $221.9 million at December 31, 2021.
On October 11, 2022, NOG priced a total of $500.0 million of 3.625% Senior Unsecured Convertible Notes due 2029, upsized due to strong demand, and inclusive of the exercise of the $65.0 million over-allotment option. The Company purchased Capped Calls as part of the transaction, boosting the effective conversion price of the notes to $52.17 per share. These notes feature Instrument C settlement, which requires the Company to repay all principal amounts in cash.
On November 8, 2022, NOG exercised its right to cause a full mandatory conversion of its 6.5% Series A Perpetual Convertible Preferred Stock into shares of common stock, which will be effected on November 15, 2022. Holders of the Preferred Stock will receive 4.4878 shares of common stock and a cash payment of $6.3337 for each share of Preferred Stock converted. All dividends on the Preferred Stock will cease to accumulate on the conversion date. On November 15, 2022, holders of record at the close of business on November 1, 2022 will separately receive a final semi-annual cash dividend of $3.25 per share on the Preferred Stock. The conversion will have no impact on NOG’s fully diluted share count as the Preferred Stock has been included in NOG’s fully diluted share calculations on an as-converted basis. The 1,643,732 outstanding shares of Preferred Stock will convert into an aggregate of approximately 7,376,740 shares of common stock. Based on NOG’s recent $0.30 per share declared common stock dividend, the conversion of the Preferred Stock will reduce annualized dividend payments by approximately $1.8 million per year.
SHAREHOLDER RETURNS
On August 1, 2022, NOG’s Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend for NOG’s common stock of $0.25 per share for stockholders of record as of September 29, 2022, which was paid on October 31, 2022. This represented a 32% increase from the prior quarter.
On November 2, 2022, NOG’s Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend for NOG’s common stock of $0.30 per share for stockholders of record as of December 29, 2022, which will be paid on January 31, 2023. This represents a 20% increase from the prior quarter.
In the third quarter and October 2022, NOG repurchased $38.7 million of its common stock. In total year-to-date, NOG has repurchased and retired 1.81 million shares at an average price of $28.42 per share, for a total of $51.5 million. NOG has $98.5 million remaining available on its current common stock repurchase authorization.
In the third quarter and October 2022, NOG repurchased and retired $10.0 million of its 8.125% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2028. The average purchase price was 94.8% of par value. NOG has $26.6 million remaining available on its current repurchase authorization.
2022 FULL YEAR GUIDANCE
(all forecasts are provided on a 2-stream production basis)
NOG is increasing production, net well completion, and capital expenditure guidance, and adjusting certain other guidance items.
Significant year-to-date Ground Game success, development activity pull-forwards, and stronger organic well elections have driven an increase in capital expenditure guidance for the year by $47.5 million at the midpoint. Inflation was not a material factor to the increase in capital spending.
Additional turn-in-lines ahead of schedule, combined with notably better well performance, have driven an increase to production guidance by approximately 1,250 Boe per day at the midpoint for 2022. Notably, NOG expects second half 2022 capital spending to drive significant volume growth exiting 2022 into 2023. NOG has provided December production exit rate guidance that includes, on a full month pro forma basis, the acquisitions the Company expects to close in December 2022. The pending acquisition of the MPDC Mascot Project is not included in these figures, as it is scheduled to close in January 2023.
NOG is updating production expense guidance to account for slightly higher processing and lifting costs incurred year-to-date. This has been more than offset by higher than expected gas realizations, as well as significantly better realized oil prices in both the Williston and Permian basins, leading to improved annual guidance for oil differentials and gas realizations.
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