NATURAL GAS INVENTORY (Week Ended 12/05/14)
Current: 3,359 Bcf
Actual Injection/(Withdrawal): (51) Bcf
Economist Average Estimate: (44) Bcf
Previous: 3,410 Bcf
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**All notes from 12/11/14**
UBS Investment Research
Storage withdrawal above expectations
Storage fell 51 Bcf, above consensus expectations of 45 Bcf and the UBSe range of a 40-50 Bcf withdrawal. Nonetheless, this week’s withdrawal is still below both the 81 Bcf withdrawal in the comparable week last year and the 5-year average of a 67 Bcf withdrawal. Inventories are now 3,359 Bcf, narrowing the deficit to the prior year and the 5-year average to 174 Bcf and 352 Bcf, respectively.
Weather last week was colder than 2013 and the 5-year average
Last week’s weather was 1% and 4% colder than the comparable week last year and the 5-year average, respectively. Since Sept, weather has been 1% warmer than last year but 5% colder than the 5-year average. Approximately 77% of HDDs remain ahead of us.
Forecast a 45-55 Bcf withdrawal next week
We forecast a 45-55 Bcf withdrawal next week, compared to 2013’s massive 285 Bcf withdrawal and the 5-year average of a 168 Bcf withdrawal. Over the last month, the weather-adjusted S/D has been 2.4 Bcfd oversupplied vs. last year and 1.8 Bcfd oversupplied vs. 5-year average. Given the current weather-adjusted oversupply, we forecast storage to exit the winter at 1.8 Tcf (above the 5-year average of 1.71 Tcf).
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