(Oil & Gas 360) – The International Energy Administration (IEA) is forecasting 70% growth in global renewable capacity additions by the end of the decade. The projected momentum follows a record year for capacity growth in 2023.
Solar and wind are expected to generate 95% of that capacity growth due to their growing economic attractiveness, according to the agency.
The report (called “Renewables 2024”) notes that solar is the most viable venue for these capacity additions.
The IEA says that solar is expected to account for 80% of the growth in the renewable power sector. It cites the lowering costs, a permitting timeline advantage, and widespread social acceptance and policy support versus wind, which has faced recent financial difficulties and public pushback in many places around the world.
Capacity is not energy. It refers to the full potential from a source running at peak efficiency all the time, so it differs considerably from the actual delivery of electrons to the grid. For instance, while solar is to dominate the capacity additions through the rest of the decade, it is only 10-25% efficient, i.e., the amount of actual electricity generated versus the full operational capability of the technology. Wind is generally 25-40% efficient.
Countries with less stringent environmental regulations, such as China, India, the ASEAN region (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), and Africa, can expect more hydropower, but the report says the use of water as a source of electricity isn’t considered very viable in the world’s developed countries.
Other renewable sources, including hydrogen, are not projected to make meaningful contributions to the global renewable energy mix anytime soon. In addition to hydrogen, other sources not ready for prime-time include bioenergy, geothermal, concentrated solar power, and ocean power.
China, Europe, India, and the United States collectively provide 80% of total installed renewable capacity worldwide, according to the IEA.
While the study predicts the United States and European Union will both double renewable capacity by 2030, China is expected to account for 60% of the overall global expansion growth. India is expected to see the fastest growth percentage-wise.
Nuclear power was not included in the study. The agency has released a separate report on nuclear energy called “Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System.”
About two hundred nations last year had pledged to triple their renewable capacity by 2030. The report said countries will be expected next year to update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC’s), which outlines for others their intentions for growing their renewable capacity.
By Jim Felton for oilandgas360.com
