(Oil Price) – Tropical storm Rafael has strengthened to hurricane intensity in recent hours and is still set to continue its path toward the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, where oil and gas producers have shut-in production at platforms and evacuated personnel to shore.
The late-season hurricane could threaten about 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, according to modeling data by energy analytics provider Earth Science Associates. The current projected path of the hurricane could pass through the Gulf of Mexico on a trajectory that could affect between 3.1 million bpd and 4.9 million bpd in production, the modeling showed on Tuesday.
Also on Tuesday, oil companies started to evacuate personnel ahead of Rafael’s passing through the Gulf of Mexico.
BP started shuffling personnel off platforms like Argos, Thunder Horse, and Mad Dog. Chevron, too, followed suit, relocating folks from platforms including Big Foot and Petronius.
Chevron said that it is shutting in production at its operated Gulf of Mexico facilities and is transporting all associated personnel to shore.
Shell has said that as a precautionary measure at its Appomattox, Vito, Ursa, Mars, Auger, and Enchilada/Salsa assets, it had begun moving non-essential personnel to shore, and has safely paused some drilling operations.
So far this season, the U.S. energy industry has suffered the worst disruption from Hurricane Francine, which shut in about 42% of oil production and 52% of natural gas production in the Gulf. The energy analytics firm’s models suggest Rafael could become the second most disruptive storm for the year if the strength projections turn out to be right.
Rafael would be the 17th named storm this Atlantic hurricane season and the tenth one since September 24. Earlier in the year, the Energy Information Administration predicted up to 25 named storms for the season, warning that would wreak more havoc on the American oil and gas industry than ever before.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
