Granite Oil Corp. Announces 2017 Record Year End Reserve Metrics and Operational Update
March 7, 2018 - 8:15 PM EST
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Granite Oil Corp. Announces 2017 Record Year End Reserve Metrics and Operational Update
CALGARY, Alberta, March 07, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GRANITE OIL CORP. (“Granite” or the “Company”) (TSX:GXO) (OTCQX:GXOCF) is pleased to present the summary results of the independent reserves report (the “Sproule Report”) prepared by Sproule Associates Limited (“Sproule”) with an effective date of December 31, 2017.
In 2017 Granite invested approximately $18.8 million of capital expenditures (unaudited) all organically, including approximately $3.0 million of exploration, into its 100%-owned Bakken oil property. This represents a decrease of approximately 27% in year over year development spending. While the Company drilled and completed only eight 100% working interest horizontal development wells, representing two less than the previous year, and converted five producing oil wells to gas injection, it still replaced its Proved Developed Producing (PDP) reserves by 215%. PDP F&D was a record $9.00/boe at 95% oil which resulted in a record recycle ratio of 3.3. This represents the third consecutive year of increasing PDP reserves replacement and recycle ratios. Granite’s highly effective gas injection Enhanced Oil Recovery (“EOR”) scheme continues to demonstrate its efficiency at converting barrels in the ground into developed producing production. Furthermore, cumulative oil production plus the Company’s current PDP bookings amounts to only 5% recovery of the estimated original oil in place. With its recovery scheme and remaining infill drilling inventory, the Company expects this trend to continue on this early-life-cycle Bakken pool.
2017 Reserves Highlights(1)(2)
Proved Developed Producing (PDP) reserves
Increased 18% to 7.3 mmboe from 6.2 mmboe (95% oil)
Replaced production 215%
F&D costs were $9.00/boe resulting in a PDP recycle ratio of 3.3 times(1)(2);
Total Proved (TP) reserves
Increased 15% to 14.3 mmboe from 12.5 mmboe (85% oil)
Replaced production 287%
F&D costs were $10.28/boe resulting in a TP recycle ratio of 2.9 times(1)(2);
Proved plus Probable (P+P) reserves
Increased 5% to 19.5 mmboe from 18.7 mmboe (85% oil)
Replaced production 190%
F&D costs were $14.08/boe resulting in a 2P recycle ratio of 2.1 times(1)(2);
Reserves Performance Measures(1)(2)(3)
2017
2016
2015
Proved Developed Producing
Total Reserves (mboe)
7,294
6,178
5,566
Reserves additions (mboe)
1,116
612
216
F&D ($/boe)
9.00
13.02
27.55
Recycle Ratio
3.3
2.1
0.9
Reserves Replacement
215
%
158
%
117
%
Total Proved
Total Reserves (mboe)
14,302
12,483
11,166
Reserves additions (mboe)
1,819
1,316
783
Change in FDC ($000)
9,917
(9,883
)
(1,561
)
F&D ($/boe)
10.28
4.96
19.23
Recycle Ratio
2.9
5.6
1.3
Reserves Replacement
287
%
225
%
161
%
Proved Plus Probable
Total Reserves (mboe)
19,534
18,653
17,704
Reserves additions (mboe)
881
949
748
Change in FDC ($000)
7,303
(12,403
)
(28,779
)
F&D ($/boe)
14.08
4.61
6.13
Recycle Ratio
2.1
6.0
4.1
Reserves Replacement
190
%
190
%
158
%
Notes:
Financial information is based on the Company's preliminary 2017 unaudited financial statements and is therefore subject to audit.
Recycle ratio is calculated as operating netback divided by F&D costs. The F&D cost includes changes in FDC. Calculation is based on estimated 2017 operating netback of $29.71 per boe, which is calculated as revenue (including realized hedging gains) less royalties and production costs. See “Readers Advisories” for the method of calculating operating netback.
Reserve performance metrics for the years 2015 and 2016 are calculated using the Company’s audited financial statements for the respective years.
Net Asset Values
The present value of the Company’s future net revenues discounted at 10% (PV10) before taxes of Granite’s reserves, as set out in the Sproule Report, plus an internally estimated undeveloped land and seismic value of $12 million, less estimated net debt of $39.8 million at December 31, 2017, per fully diluted common share are as set out below:
Proved Developed Producing
$2.97/share
Total Proved
$5.64/share
Total Proved Plus Probable
$8.21/share
Granite’s Bakken property produced an average of approximately 2668 boe per day (97% oil) during 2017. During 2017, Granite’s average realized operating netback is estimated to be $29.71/boe.
Operations Update
Granite has now drilled and completed its first two development wells since slowing its development pace in July of 2017 as it shifted focus to a new area of its Bakken pool. The average flowing IP 30 of these wells was approximately 270 bbls/d of oil. The wells were drilled on the 200 m offset spacing formula that produced the best overall well results for pool development to date.
Granite is also pleased to report the production response from its Bakken pool from not drilling for five months. The Company’s Gas Injection EOR scheme is proven technology and, as anticipated, the pool production demonstrated typical secondary recovery response resulting in a shallower production decline profile.
Over the last three years, Granite has gained invaluable knowledge developing and optimizing its early life cycle EOR scheme over a relatively small portion of its pool culminating in the best proved producing reserves replacement and recycle ratios to date. Going forward, Granite will apply this results-based knowledge to develop its pool in the most efficient manner. The Company is budgeting a further reduction of capital in 2018 to approximately $13 million, which is designed to continue to increase its PDP reserves and their net present value. Based on field estimates, February production was approximately 2,300 bbls/d of oil. With its shallower decline base production, Granite is well positioned in 2018 and will layer on production at a rate that maximizes overall well results and maintains a shallower decline profile. Granite will protect its balance sheet, maintain its dividend model and provide its shareholders with continued value growth through a combination of dividends, production and reserves additions.
Granite is well positioned to mitigate the current situation of widened differentials in Alberta and is aggressively pursuing several options. The Company has historically been selling into a heavier pipeline system near its battery, getting a quality uptick to WCS pricing. With higher quality oil the Company has several options to optimize its sales pricing including moving oil into another pipeline, blending and railing. The Company’s battery is located near the Alberta/Montana border with available railing facilities in close proximity of either side of the border. Granite has successfully railed oil in the past.
Outlook
Granite will continue its responsible approach of developing its Bakken pool in the most efficient manner. The Company continues to measure and validate its model by the efficiency it converts barrels in the ground into producing barrels, which will ultimately maximize long term value for its shareholders. Granite will continue to prioritize this along with its balance sheet and dividend.
2017 Year End Reserves
The evaluation of Granite’s petroleum and natural gas reserves prepared by independent reserves evaluator Sproule in accordance with definitions, standards and procedures contained in National Instrument 51-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (“NI 51-101”) and the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (“COGE Handbook”). The reserves evaluation is based on forecast prices and costs, and applies Sproule’s forecast escalated commodity price deck, foreign exchange rate, and inflation rate assumptions as at December 31, 2017 as outlined in the table below entitled “PricingAssumptions”. Additional reserve information as required under NI 51-101 will be included in the Company's Annual Information Form which will be filed on SEDAR on March 22, 2018. Financial information presented above is based on management-prepared financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2017, which are in the process of being audited by Granite’s independent auditors and, accordingly, such financial information is subject to change based on the results of the audit. See “Reader Advisory – Unaudited Financial Information” below.
Summary of Reserves
The following table is a summary of the Company’s estimated reserves as of December 31, 2017, based on the Sproule Report.
Summary of Company Gross Oil and Gas Reserves as at December 31, 2017 (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Reserves Category
Oil and NGLs (Mbbl)
Gas (MMcf)
Oil Equivalent (MBOE)
BTAX PV 10% ($000's)
Future Development Capital ($000's)
Recycle Ratio
Net Undeveloped Wells Booked
Proved Developed Producing
6,966
1,969
7,294
132,984
1,195
3.3
Proved Developed Non-Producing
409
9,769
2,037
8,413
1,647
Proved Undeveloped
4,813
947
4,971
86,054
59,830
39
Total Proved
12,188
12,685
14,302
227,451
62,672
2.9
39
Probable Developed Producing
2,525
595
2,624
47,610
-
Probable Developed Non-Producing
214
4,103
898
3,076
-
Probable Undeveloped
1,644
398
1,710
40,022
5,658
4
Total Probable
4,383
5,096
5,232
90,708
5,658
4
Total Proved + Probable
16,571
17,781
19,534
318,159
68,330
2.1
43
Notes:
The tables summarize data set out in the Sproule Report may not add due to rounding.
Reserves have been presented on a gross basis which are the Company’s total working interest share without including any royalty interests of the Company.
Based on Sproule’s December 31, 2017 escalated price forecast. See “Pricing Assumptions” below.
The net present value of future net revenues attributable to the Company’s reserves are stated prior to provision for interest, general and administrative expenses and after deduction of royalties, operating costs, estimated well abandonment and reclamation costs and estimated future capital expenditures. Future net revenues have been presented on a before tax basis. It should not be assumed that the present worth of estimated future net revenue presented in the tables above represents the fair market value of the reserves. There is no assurance that the forecast prices and costs assumptions will be attained and variances could be material. The recovery and reserves estimates of Granite’s crude oil and natural gas reserves provided herein are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be recovered. Actual crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids reserves may be greater than or less than the estimates provided herein.
The Company’s Bakken reserves are developed with horizontal wells completed with multi-stage fracturing techniques.
“Oil” volumes include all Light, Medium, and Heavy crude oil volumes.
Net Present Values (“NPV”) of Future Net Revenue
The following table is a summary of the estimated net present values of future net revenue (before income taxes) associated with the Company’s reserves as at December 31, 2017, based on the Sproule Report. The calculated NPVs include a deduction for estimated future well abandonment and reclamation but do not include a provision for interest, debt service charges and general and administrative expenses. It should not be assumed that the NPV estimates represent the fair market value of the reserves.
Summary of NPV of Future Net Revenue as at December 31, 2017 (1)(2)(3)
Reserves Category
Net Present Value Before Income Taxes Discounted at (%/Year)
0% $M
5% $M
10% $M
15% $M
20% $M
Proved
Proved Developed Producing
255,634
175,468
132,984
108,118
91,918
Proved Developed Non-Producing
68,532
15,893
8,413
6,368
5,296
Proved Undeveloped
178,388
121,475
86,054
63,624
48,684
Total Proved
502,555
312,836
227,451
178,110
145,898
Total Probable
307,066
145,036
90,708
64,791
49,744
Total Proved + Probable
809,621
457,872
318,159
242,901
195,642
Notes:
The tables summarize data set out in the Sproule Report may not add due to rounding.
Based on Sproule’s December 31, 2017 escalated price forecast. See “Pricing Assumptions” below.
The net present value of future net revenues attributable to the Company’s reserves are stated prior to provision for interest, general and administrative expenses and after deduction of royalties, operating costs, estimated well abandonment and reclamation costs and estimated future capital expenditures. Future net revenues have been presented on a before tax basis. It should not be assumed that the present worth of estimated future net revenue presented in the tables above represents the fair market value of the reserves. There is no assurance that the forecast prices and costs assumptions will be attained and variances could be material. The recovery and reserves estimates of Granite’s crude oil and natural gas reserves provided herein are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be recovered. Actual crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids reserves may be greater than or less than the estimates provided herein.
Net Asset Value
Based on Sproule’s December 31, 2017 forecast pricing, Granite’s net asset value calculation is set out in the following table. This net asset value determination is a "point-in-time" measurement and does not take into account the possibility of the Company being able to recognize additional reserves through successful future capital investment in its existing properties beyond those included in the Sproule Report.
Net Asset Value as at December 31, 2017 (1)
($M)
2P Reserves NPV 10 before tax
318,159
Net undeveloped land and seismic value (internal valuation)
12,000
Estimate Net Debt (unaudited)
(39,830
)
Net asset value
290,329
Fully Diluted shares outstanding (000’s)
35,364
Estimate NAV per fully diluted share ($/share)
8.21
Note:
Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Future Development Capital (“FDC”)
The following table provides a summary of the estimated FDC required to bring the Company’s undeveloped reserves to production, which have been deducted in the estimation of future net revenue attributable to such reserves. Changes in forecast FDC occur annually as a result of development activities, acquisition and disposition activities, and capital cost estimates that reflect the independent evaluator's best estimate of what it will cost to bring the proved undeveloped and probable reserves on production using forecast prices and costs.
Future Development Costs of Undeveloped Reserves (1)
Future Development Capital
($M)
($M)
Year
Total Proved
Total Proved + Probable
2018
13,350
13,350
2019
15,628
16,233
2020
16,392
18,140
2021
16,155
19,459
Post 2037
1,147
1,147
Total Undiscounted FDC
62,672
68,330
Total Discounted FDC at 10%/Year
51,036
55,322
Note:
Numbers may not add due to rounding.
Pricing Assumptions
The following table summarizes Sproule’s commodity price forecast and foreign exchange rate and inflation rate assumptions as at December 31, 2017, as applied in the Sproule Report. Forecast pricing for oil and gas for the year 2018 decreased by 10% and 18%, respectively, when comparing Sproule’s pricing assumptions included in the December 31, 2017 report versus the December 31, 2016 report. However, the longer term price forecast increased on average over the following 10 years by 2% for oil, and decreased on average for the following 10 years by 8% for gas when comparing Sproule’s pricing assumptions in the December 31, 2017 report versus the December 31, 2016 report.
Forecast Pricing and Foreign Exchange Rates (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
Western Canada Select 20.5° API ($Cdn/bbl)(4)
Alberta AECO-C Spot ($Cdn/Mmbtu)(5)
Exchange Rate (2) ($US/$Cdn)
Edmonton Propane ($Cdn/bbl)
Edmonton Butane ($Cdn/bbl)
Edmonton Pentanes Plus ($Cdn/bbl)
Forecast(3)
2018
51.05
2.85
0.79
26.06
48.73
67.72
2019
59.61
3.11
0.82
32.84
55.49
75.61
2020
64.94
3.65
0.85
35.41
57.65
78.82
2021
68.43
3.80
0.85
37.85
60.12
82.35
2022
69.8
3.95
0.85
39.29
61.32
84.07
2023
71.2
4.05
0.85
40.25
62.55
85.82
Thereafter Escalation Rate of 2.0%
Notes:
This summary table identifies benchmark reference pricing schedules that might apply to a reporting issuer.
The exchange rate used to generate the benchmark reference prices in this table.
As at December 31, 2017.
The price received for the Company’s oil, which is considered to be Medium crude oil, has historically corresponded very closely to Western Canada Select 20.5° API ($Cdn/Bbl), plus associated quality adjustments.
The price received for the Company’s natural gas has historically corresponded to AECO-C Spot pricing ($Cdn/MMBtu), adjusted for heat value and transportation.
2017 Year End Reporting
The Company will report its 2017 year end results on March 22, 2018.
For further information, please contact Michael Kabanuk, President & CEO, by telephone at (587) 349-9123 or Tyler Klatt, Vice President, Exploration, by telephone at (587) 349-9125.
READER ADVISORIES
Forward-Looking Statements
This news release contains forward‐looking statements and forward‐looking information (collectively “forward‐looking information”) within the meaning of applicable securities laws relating to Granite’s plans, strategy, objectives and other aspects of Granite’s anticipated future operations and financial, operating and drilling plans and results. In addition, without limited the generality of the foregoing, this news release contains forward-looking information pertaining to the following: projections of market prices and costs, supply and demand for oil and natural gas, the quantity of reserves, oil and natural gas production levels, the success of the enhanced oil recovery scheme, capital expenditure programs, treatment under governmental regulatory and taxation regimes, expectations regarding Granite’s ability to raise capital and to continually add to reserves through acquisitions and development, projections of market prices and costs, Granite’s dividend policy and plans, timing of filing of Granite’s annual information form and annual financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2017, and other matters ancillary or incidental to the foregoing.
All statements, other than statements of historical fact, may be forward-looking information. Forward-looking information is often, but not always, identified by the use of words such as “seek”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “continue”, “estimate”, “expect”, “may”, “will”, “project”, “predict”, “potential”, “targeting”, “intend”, “could”, “might”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions. The forward‐looking information is based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by Granite’s management, including: expectations concerning prevailing commodity prices, exchange rates, interest rates, applicable royalty rates and tax laws; capital efficiencies; legislative and regulatory environments of the jurisdictions where Granite carries on business or has operations; future production rates and estimates of operating costs; performance of existing and future wells; reserve and resource volumes; anticipated timing and results of capital expenditures; the success obtained in drilling new wells; the sufficiency of budgeted capital expenditures in carrying out planned activities; the timing, location and extent of future drilling operations; the state of the economy and the exploration and production business; results of operations; performance; business prospects and opportunities; the availability and cost of financing, labour and services; the impact of increasing competition; ability to market oil and natural gas successfully and Granite’s ability to access capital on satisfactory terms.
Statements relating to “reserves” are also deemed to be forward-looking information, as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the reserves described exist in the quantities predicted or estimated and that the reserves can be profitably produced in the future.
Although Granite believes that the expectations and assumptions on which such forward-looking information is based are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking information because no assurance can be given that they will prove to be correct. Since forward‐looking information addresses future events and conditions, by its very nature they involve inherent risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, volatility in the market prices for oil and natural gas; uncertainties associated with estimating reserves; uncertainties associated with Granite’s ability to obtain additional financing on satisfactory terms; geological, technical, drilling and processing problems; liabilities and risks, including environmental liabilities and risks, inherent in oil and natural gas operations; incorrect assessments of the value of acquisitions; competition for, among other things, capital, acquisitions of reserves, undeveloped lands and skilled personnel. Management has included the above summary of assumptions and risks related to forward-looking information provided in this news release in order to provide security holders with a more complete perspective on Granite’s future operations and such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. Granite’s actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, the forward-looking information and, accordingly, no assurance can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward‐looking information will transpire or occur, or if any of them do so, what benefits that Granite will derive there from.
Readers are cautioned that the foregoing lists of factors are not exhaustive. Additional information on these and other factors that could affect Granite’s operations or financial results are included in reports on file with applicable securities regulatory authorities and may be accessed through the SEDAR website (www.sedar.com).
The forward-looking information contained in this new release represents Granite’s views as of the date of this document and such information should not be relied upon as representing its views as of any date subsequent to the date of this document. Granite has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results, performance or achievements to vary from those current expectations or estimates expressed or implied by the forward-looking information. However, there may be other factors that cause results, performance or achievements not to be as expected or estimated and that could cause actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from current expectations. Except as required by applicable securities laws, Granite undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking information.
Dividends
The payment and the amount of dividends declared in any month will be subject to the discretion of the board of directors and will depend on the board of director’s assessment of Granite’s outlook for growth, capital expenditure requirements, funds from operations, potential acquisition opportunities, debt position and other conditions that the board of directors may consider relevant at such future time. The amount of future cash dividends, if any, may also vary depending on a variety of factors, including fluctuations in commodity prices and differentials, production levels, capital expenditure requirements, debt service requirements, operating costs, royalty burdens and foreign exchange rates.
Unaudited Financial Information and Non-GAAP Measures
Certain financial and operating information included in this news release are based on estimated unaudited financial results for the year ended December 31, 2017 and are subject to the same limitations as discussed under “Forward- Looking Statements” set out above. These estimated amounts are subject to change upon the completion of the audited financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2017 and changes could be material. Granite anticipates filings its audited financial statements and related management’s discussion and analysis for the year ended December 31, 2017 on SEDAR on March 22, 2018.
This document contains the terms “net debt” and “operating netback” which are defined in the Company’s Management’s Discussion and Analysis (the “MD&A”) for the nine months ended September 30, 2017. Management uses these financial measures to analyze operating performance and leverage. These measures do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and therefore may not be comparable with the calculation of similar measures for other companies. Granite feels these benchmarks are key measures of overall sustainability.
Information Regarding Disclosure on Oil and Gas Reserves
The reserves data set forth above is based upon an independent reserves assessment and evaluation prepared by Sproule with an effective date of December 31, 2017 (the “Sproule Report”). The information contained in this news release summarizes the Company’s crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas reserves and the net present values before income tax of future net revenue for the Company’s reserves using forecast prices and costs based on the Sproule Report. Additional disclosure required by NI 51-101 will be provided in the Company's Annual Information Form, which Granite intends to file on SEDAR at www.sedar.com on March 22, 2018.
All reserve references in this news release are “Company share reserves”. “Company share reserves” are the Company’s total working interest reserves before the deduction of any royalties and including any royalty interests of the Company.
The Sproule Report has been prepared in accordance with the standards contained in the COGE handbook and the reserve definitions contained in NI 51-101. All evaluations and reviews of future net cash flows are stated prior to any provisions for interest costs or general and administrative costs and after the deduction of estimated future capital expenditures for wells to which reserves have been assigned. It should not be assumed that the estimates of future net revenues presented in the tables above represent the fair market value of the reserves. There is no assurance that the forecast prices and cost assumptions will be attained and variances could be material. The recovery and reserve estimates of the Company’s crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas reserves provided herein are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be recovered. Actual crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids reserves may be greater than or less than the estimates provided herein. All future net revenues are estimated using forecast prices, arising from the anticipated development and production of the Company’s reserves, net of the associated royalties, operating costs, development costs, and abandonment and reclamation costs and are stated prior to provision for interest and general and administrative expenses. Future net revenues have been presented on a before tax basis. Estimated values of future net revenue disclosed herein do not represent fair market value.
Oil and Gas Metrics
This news release contains metrics commonly used in the oil and natural gas industry, such as “recycle ratio”, “operating netback”, “finding and development (“F&D”) costs”, “development capital”, and “reserve life index (“RLI”)”. These terms do not have a standardized meaning and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies, and therefore should not be used to make such comparisons. Management uses oil and gas metrics for its own performance measurements and to provide shareholders with measures to compare Granite’s operations over time. Readers are cautioned that the information provided by these metrics, or that can be derived from the metrics presented in this news release, should not be relied upon for investment or other purposes.
“Finding and development costs” are calculated as the sum of development capital plus the change in FDC for the period divided by the change in reserves that are characterized as development for the period. Finding and development costs take into account reserves revisions during the year on a per boe basis. The aggregate of the exploration and development costs incurred in the financial year and changes during that year in estimated future development costs generally will not reflect total finding and development costs related to reserves additions for that year.
“Development capital” means the aggregate exploration and development costs incurred in the financial year on reserves that are categorized as development. Development capital presented herein excludes land, acquisition and capitalized administration costs.
“Recycle ratio” is measured by dividing the operating netback by F&D cost per boe for the year.
“Operating netback” is calculated using production revenues minus royalties and production expenses calculated on a per boe basis.
“Reserve life index” is calculated as total company share reserves divided by annual production. Management uses these oil and gas metrics for its own performance measurements and to provide shareholders with measures to compare Granite’s operations over time. Readers are cautioned that the information provided by these metrics, or that can be derived from the metrics presented in this news release, should not be relied upon for investment or other purposes.
BOE Presentation
References herein to “boe” mean barrels of oil equivalent derived by converting gas to oil in the industry-accepted standard conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet (Mcf) of gas to one barrel (bbl) of oil. Boe may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 6 Mcf: 1 bbl is based on an energy conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. In addition, given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6: 1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.
