Baytex Reports 2015 Results, Strong Reserves Growth in the Eagle Ford and Revised 2016 Budget
CALGARY, ALBERTA
--(Marketwired - March 3, 2016) - Baytex Energy Corp. ("Baytex") (TSX:BTE)(NYSE:BTE) reports its operating and financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2015 (all amounts are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted).
"Our 2015 results reflect the strong contribution from our Eagle Ford assets. The Eagle Ford generates the highest cash netbacks in our portfolio and has enhanced the quality of our production and reserves base. In 2015, 86% of our development activity was focused in the Eagle Ford, which contributed to strong reserves growth in our
U.S.
assets. The execution of our capital program has yielded impressive results as we advance the multi-zone development potential of our Eagle Ford acreage," commented James Bowzer, President and Chief Executive Officer.
Bowzer said, "Based on the current commodity price environment and our commitment to ensuring strong levels of financial liquidity, we are reducing our 2016 exploration and development capital budget to $225 to $265 million, a 33% reduction from initial expectations of $325 to $400 million. In addition, we are proactively shutting-in approximately 7,500 bbl/d of low or negative margin heavy oil production in order to optimize the value of the resource base and maximize our funds from operations. Should netbacks improve, we have the ability to restart these wells in relatively short order at minimal cost. Our 2016 program will remain flexible and allows for adjustments to spending and production based on changes in the commodity price environment."
Highlights
-- Generated production of 81,110 boe/d (81% oil and NGL) during Q4/2015
and 84,648 boe/d for the full-year 2015, in line with guidance;
-- Delivered funds from operations ("FFO") of $93.1 million ($0.44 per
share) in Q4/2015 and $516.4 million ($2.61 per share) for the full-year
2015;
-- Produced 40,284 boe/d (78% oil and NGL) in the Eagle Ford during
Q4/2015, an increase of 3% over Q3/2015 and 6% over Q4/2014;
-- Realized over $150 million in efficiencies in 2015 as we remained
focused on cost reduction initiatives across all of our operations,
including drilling and completions, production and operating expenses,
transportation expenses, and general and administrative expenses;
-- Increased proved plus probable reserves (excluding thermal) by 2% to 347
mmboe. Year-end 2015 proved plus probable reserves are comprised of 81%
oil and NGL and 19% natural gas;
-- In the Eagle Ford, replaced 205% of production and increased proved plus
probable reserves 8% to 203 mmboe. From the time of acquisition in June
2014, proved plus probable reserves in the Eagle Ford have increased by
22%;
-- Recorded finding and development ("F&D") costs for proved plus probable
reserves, including changes in future development costs, of $7.68/boe
for 2015 and generated a recycle ratio (operating netback divided by F&D
costs) of 2.1x;
-- Using the December 31, 2015 independent reserves evaluation, the present
value of our reserves, discounted at 10% before tax, is estimated to be
$4.3 billion; and
-- Our estimated net asset value at year-end 2015, discounted at 10%, is
estimated to be $11.05 per share. This is based on the estimated
reserves value of $4.3 billion plus a value for undeveloped acreage, net
of long-term debt, asset retirement obligations and working capital.
Three Months Ended Years Ended
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December September December December December
31, 2015 30, 2015 31, 2014 31, 2015 31, 2014
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FINANCIAL
(thousands of
Canadian
dollars,
except per
common share
amounts)
Petroleum and
natural gas
sales $ 230,200 $ 268,625 $ 472,390 $ 1,129,872 $ 1,969,022
Funds from
operations (1) 93,095 105,052 245,513 516,417 879,790
Per share -
basic 0.44 0.51 1.47 2.61 5.91
Per share -
diluted 0.44 0.51 1.47 2.61 5.91
Cash dividends
declared (2) - 17,248 72,509 96,624 301,118
Dividends
declared per
share - 0.20 0.58 0.80 2.64
Net income
(loss) (412,924) (517,856) (361,816) (1,133,651) (132,807)
Per share -
basic (1.96) (2.49) (2.16) (5.72) (0.89)
Per share -
diluted (1.96) (2.49) (2.16) (5.72) (0.89)
Exploration and
development 140,796 126,804 214,697 521,039 766,070
Acquisitions,
net of
divestitures (574) (498) (35,666) 1,648 2,545,156
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Total oil and
natural gas
capital
expenditures $ 140,222 $ 126,306 $ 179,031 $ 522,687 $ 3,311,226
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Bank loan (3) $ 256,749 $ 208,195 $ 666,886 $ 256,749 $ 666,886
Long-term notes
(3) 1,623,658 1,581,002 1,418,685 1,623,658 1,418,685
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Long-term debt 1,880,407 1,789,197 2,085,571 1,880,407 2,085,571
Working capital
deficiency 169,498 160,539 210,409 169,498 210,409
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Net debt (4) $ 2,049,905 $ 1,949,736 $ 2,295,980 $ 2,049,905 $ 2,295,980
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Three Months Ended Years Ended
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
December September December December December
31, 30, 31, 31, 31,
2015 2015 2014 2015 2014
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OPERATING
Daily production
Heavy oil (bbl/d) 31,733 33,639 43,186 34,974 45,022
Light oil and condensate
(bbl/d) 24,930 24,712 26,916 25,887 17,681
NGL (bbl/d) 8,996 8,507 8,098 8,492 4,819
Total oil and NGL
(bbl/d) 65,659 66,858 78,200 69,353 67,522
Natural gas (mcf/d) 92,708 91,869 84,428 91,766 65,234
Oil equivalent (boe/d @
6:1) (5) 81,110 82,170 92,271 84,648 78,395
Average prices (before
hedging)
WTI oil (US$/bbl) 42.18 46.43 73.14 48.79 92.97
WCS Heavy Oil (US$/bbl) 27.69 33.13 58.90 35.26 73.58
Edmonton par oil ($/bbl) 52.94 56.22 75.69 57.20 95.28
LLS oil (US$/bbl) 43.33 49.79 76.34 51.50 96.76
BTE heavy oil ($/bbl)
(6) 24.41 30.90 53.34 32.23 69.64
BTE light oil and
condensate ($/bbl) 50.17 55.46 77.20 55.75 91.37
BTE NGL ($/bbl) 17.23 15.35 28.07 16.91 35.28
BTE total oil and NGL
($/bbl) 33.21 38.00 58.93 39.13 72.88
BTE natural gas ($/mcf) 2.76 3.28 4.12 3.08 4.53
BTE oil equivalent
($/boe) 30.03 34.59 53.72 35.40 66.54
CAD/USD noon rate at
period end 1.3840 1.3394 1.1601 1.3840 1.1601
CAD/USD average rate for
period 1.3353 1.3094 1.1378 1.2811 1.1050
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Three Months Ended Years Ended
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
December September December December December
31, 30, 31, 31, 31,
2015 2015 2014 2015 2014
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COMMON SHARE INFORMATION
TSX
Share price (Cdn$)
High 6.88 19.50 42.90 24.87 49.88
Low 3.50 3.92 14.56 3.50 14.56
Close 4.48 4.27 19.32 4.48 19.32
Volume traded (thousands) 283,619 165,674 133,365 652,044 273,743
NYSE
Share price (US$)
High 5.27 15.51 38.35 20.10 46.46
Low 2.50 2.92 12.63 2.50 12.63
Close 3.24 3.20 16.61 3.24 16.61
Volume traded (thousands) 153,763 109,902 20,255 375,660 33,170
Common shares outstanding
(thousands) 210,583 210,225 168,107 210,583 168,107
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Notes:
(1) Funds from operations is not a measurement based on generally accepted
accounting principles ("GAAP") in
Canada
, but is a financial term
commonly used in the oil and gas industry. We define funds from
operations as cash flow from operating activities adjusted for finance
costs, changes in non-cash operating working capital and asset
retirement obligations settled. Baytex's funds from operations may not
be comparable to other issuers. Baytex considers funds from operations
a key measure of performance as it demonstrates its ability to generate
the cash flow necessary to fund capital investments, debt repayment and
future dividends. For a reconciliation of funds from operations to cash
flow from operating activities, see Management's Discussion and
Analysis of the operating and financial results for the year ended
December 31, 2015.
(2) Cash dividends declared are net of participation in our dividend
reinvestment plan.
(3) Principal amount of instruments.
(4) Net debt is a non-GAAP measure which we define to be the sum of working
capital (which is current assets less current liabilities (excluding
unrealized gains or losses on financial derivatives)) and the principal
amount of long-term debt.
(5) Barrel of oil equivalent ("boe") amounts have been calculated using a
conversion rate of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel
of oil. The use of boe amounts may be misleading, particularly if used
in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet of
natural gas to one barrel of oil is based on an energy equivalency
conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not
represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.
(6) Heavy oil prices exclude condensate blending.
Operations Review
Our operating results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2015 were consistent with our expectations and reflect a reduced pace of drilling activity in response to the low crude oil price environment. Production averaged 81,110 boe/d (81% oil and NGL) in Q4/2015, as compared to 82,170 boe/d (81% oil and NGL) in Q3/2015. For the full-year 2015, production averaged 84,648 boe/d (82% oil and NGL), in line with our production guidance of 84,000 to 86,000 boe/d.
Capital expenditures for exploration and development activities totaled $140.8 million in Q4/2015 and $521.0 million for full-year 2015, in line with our annual guidance of $500 to $575 million. In 2015, we participated in the drilling of 228 (81.6 net) wells with a 99% success rate.
We realized over $150 million in efficiencies in 2015 as we remained focused on cost reduction initiatives across all of our operations. Drilling costs have been reduced by approximately 27% in the Eagle Ford as compared to 2014, operating expenses were reduced by 18% from budget, transportation expenses were reduced by 20% from budget and general and administrative expenses were down 22% from budget.
Wells Drilled - Three Months Ended December 31, 2015
Stratigraphic Dry and
Crude Oil Natural Gas and Service Abandoned Total
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Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net
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Heavy oil
Lloydminster - - - - - - - - - -
Peace River - - - - - - - - - -
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- - - - - - - - - -
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Light oil and
natural gas
Eagle Ford 14 4.1 28 8.5 - - - - 42 12.6
Western
Canada - - - - - - - - - -
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14 4.1 28 8.5 - - - - 42 12.6
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Total 14 4.1 28 8.5 - - - - 42 12.6
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Wells Drilled - Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2015
Stratigraphic Dry and
Crude Oil Natural Gas and Service Abandoned Total
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Heavy oil
Lloydminster 26 17.4 - - 1 1.0 - - 27 18.4
Peace River 6 6.0 - - 5 5.0 - - 11 11.0
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32 23.4 - - 6 6.0 - - 38 29.4
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Light oil and
natural gas
Eagle Ford 66 16.7 119 32.6 1 0.3 2 0.6 188 50.2
Western
Canada - - 2 2.0 - - - - 2 2.0
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66 16.7 121 34.6 1 0.3 2 0.6 190 52.2
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Total 98 40.1 121 34.6 7 6.3 2 0.6 228 81.6
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Our performance in the Eagle Ford was strong during the fourth quarter as we maintained a consistent pace of development, averaging six drilling rigs and two frac crews on our lands. Production averaged 40,284 boe/d (78% oil and NGL) during Q4/2015, as compared to 38,941 boe/d in Q3/2015 and 39,548 boe/d in Q2/2015. Capital expenditures in the Eagle Ford totaled $132 million during Q4/2015 bringing full-year expenditures to $450 million. As at December 31, 2015, we had 36 (10.1 net) wells waiting on completion.
Significant advancements were made in 2015 to delineate the multi-zone development potential of our Sugarkane acreage. We continued to implement "stack and frac" pilots which target up to three zones in the Eagle Ford formation in addition to the overlying Austin Chalk. In 2015, we drilled 188 (50.2 net) wells on Eagle Ford acreage, of which 56% targeted the Lower Eagle Ford, 26% targeted the Austin Chalk, 11% targeted the Upper Eagle Ford and 7% targeted the upper portion of the Lower Eagle Ford. Recent production data from one pad (a total of 4 wells) that targeted three zones achieved 30-day initial production rates per well ranging from 1,400 to 1,875 boe/d. We currently have thirteen multi-zone projects in various stages of execution and production.
In Q4/2015, we participated in the drilling of 42 (12.6 net) wells in the Eagle Ford and commenced production from 61 (16.6 net) wells. Of the 61 gross wells that commenced production during the fourth quarter, 46 wells have been producing for more than 30 days and have established an average 30-day initial production rate of approximately 1,100 boe/d.
Production in
Canada
averaged 40,826 boe/d (84% oil and NGL) during Q4/2015, as compared to 43,229 boe/d in Q3/2015. The reduced volumes in
Canada
are due to the cancellation of the Canadian drilling program as a result of low crude oil prices. Capital expenditures for our Canadian assets in Q4/2015 totaled $8.8 million, a decrease from $33.5 million in Q3/2015.
Financial Review
We generated FFO of $93.1 million ($0.44 per share) in Q4/2015, compared to $105.1 million ($0.51 per share) in Q3/2015. Full-year FFO was $516.4 million ($2.61 per share), compared to $879.8 million ($5.91 per share) in 2014. The decline in FFO is largely due to a decline in commodity prices.
We recorded a net loss in Q4/2015 of $412.9 million ($1.96 per share) compared to a net loss of $517.9 million ($2.49 per share) in Q3/2015. The net loss in the quarter is largely attributable to non-cash impairment charges of $499.6 million ($419.0 million after-tax) related to our Eagle Ford operations and $45.7 million related to assets in
Canada
. These impairment charges are directly attributable to the decline in commodity prices.
In Q4/2015, the average price for West Texas Intermediate light oil ("WTI") decreased to US$42.18/bbl, as compared to US$46.43/bbl in Q3/2015. This 9% decline in the benchmark index resulted in our realized price for light oil and condensate decreasing 9% to $50.17/bbl. The discount for Canadian heavy oil, as measured by the price differential between Western Canadian Select ("WCS") and WTI, widened to US$14.49/bbl in Q4/2015, as compared to US$13.30/bbl in Q3/2015. The widening differential and lower WTI price resulted in a 16% decrease in the price of WCS and a 21% decrease in our realized heavy oil price to $24.41/bbl.
We generated an operating netback in Q4/2015 of $12.32/boe ($16.41/boe including financial derivatives gains). The Eagle Ford generated an operating netback of $18.77/boe while our Canadian operations generated an operating netback of $5.73/boe. Our Eagle Ford assets are located in south
Texas
, proximal to Gulf Coast markets, with light oil and condensate production priced off a Louisiana Light Sweet crude oil benchmark which typically trades at a premium to WTI. Declining production in the region has increased competition for field supplies resulting in lower transportation and gathering costs and improved price realizations. This strong pricing, combined with low cash costs, contributed positively to our operating netback in Q4/2015.
During the quarter, we continued to focus on cost reduction initiatives across all of our operations. Operating expenses decreased 25% on a per boe basis as compared to Q4/2014, despite the impact of fixed costs on lower production in
Canada
. We are also benefiting from the Eagle Ford assets which have lower costs and comprise a larger percentage of our production. Transportation expenses have been reduced by 30% on a per boe basis as compared to Q4/2014, due to overall cost reduction initiatives in
Canada
, which include the use of internal trucking and decreased fuel charges.
The table below provides a summary of our operating netbacks for the periods noted.
Three Months Ended December 31
-----------------------------------------
2015 2014
-----------------------------------------
($ per boe) Canada Eagle Ford Total Total Change
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Sales price $ 23.59 $ 36.56 $ 30.03 $ 53.72 (44)%
Other income - - 0.11 0.76 (86)%
Less:
Royalties 2.72 10.56 6.61 11.90 (44)%
Operating expenses 12.27 7.23 9.76 12.95 (25)%
Transportation expenses 2.87 - 1.45 2.07 (30)%
---------------------------------------------------
Operating netback $ 5.73 $ 18.77 $ 12.32 $ 27.56 (55)%
---------------------------------------------------
Financial derivatives
gain - - 4.09 6.48 (37)%
---------------------------------------------------
Operating netback after
financial derivatives $ 5.73 $ 18.77 $ 16.41 $ 34.04 (52)%
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Risk Management
As part of our normal operations, we are exposed to movements in commodity prices, foreign exchange rates and interest rates. In an effort to manage these exposures, we utilize various financial derivative contracts which are intended to partially reduce the volatility in our FFO. We realized financial derivative gains of $30.4 million in Q4/2015 and $197.5 million for the full-year 2015. These gains were primarily due to crude oil prices being at levels significantly below those set in our fixed price contracts, which were partially offset by the settlement of our foreign exchange contracts.
For 2016, we have entered into hedges on approximately 45% of our net WTI exposure with 19% fixed at US$61.50/bbl and 26% hedged utilizing a 3-way collar structure (as described in the table below). We have also entered into hedges on approximately 35% of our net WCS differential exposure and 41% of our net natural gas exposure. The unrealized financial derivatives gain with respect to our hedges as at February 25, 2016 was $152.2 million. The following table summarizes our hedges in place as at March 3, 2016.
Full-Year Full-Year
Q1/2016 Q2/1016 Q3/2016 Q4/2016 2016 2017
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CRUDE OIL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
WTI Fixed Hedges
Volumes
(bbl/d) 9,000 8,000 5,000 5,000 6,750 -
Price
(US$/bbl) $60.45 $59.84 $63.79 $63.79 $61.50 -
WTI 3-Way Option
Volumes
(bbl/d) 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 9,500 2,000
Average
Ceiling/Floor
/Sold Floor $60 / $50 $60 / $50 $60 / $50 $60 / $50 $60 / $50 $60 / $50
(US$/bbl) (2) / $40 / $40 / $40 / $40 / $40 / $40
Total WTI Hedge
Volumes (bbl/d) 18,500 17,500 14,500 14,500 16,250 2,000
Hedge (%) (1) 50% 49% 40% 40% 45% 6%
WCS Differential
Hedges
Volumes
(bbl/d) 4,333 8,000 7,000 7,000 6,583 1,500
WCS Price
Relative to
WTI (US$/bbl) ($13.33) ($13.26) ($13.32) ($13.40) ($13.33) ($13.42)
Hedge % (1) 23% 42% 37% 37% 35% 8%
NATURAL GAS
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AECO Fixed
Hedges
Volumes (gj/d) 18,333 20,000 20,000 20,000 19,583 5,000
Price ($/gj) $2.88 $2.85 $2.85 $2.85 $2.86 $2.81
NYMEX Fixed
Hedges
Volumes
(mmbtu/d) 13,333 15,000 15,000 15,000 14,583 10,000
Price
(US$/mmbtu) $3.04 $2.98 $2.98 $2.98 $3.00 $2.83
Total Hedge
Volume
(mmbtu/d) 30,711 33,975 33,957 33,957 33,146 14,739
Hedge % (1) 38% 42% 42% 42% 41% 18%
Notes:
(1) Percentage of hedged volumes is based on the mid-point of our revised
2016 production guidance (excluding NGL), net of royalties.
(2) WTI 3-way option consists of a sold call, a bought put and a sold put.
In a $60/$50/$40 example, Baytex receives WTI + US$10/bbl when WTI is
at or below US$40/bbl; Baytex receives US$50/bbl when WTI is between
US$40/bbl and US$50/bbl; Baytex receives WTI when WTI is between
US$50/bbl and US$60/bbl; and Baytex receives US$60/bbl when WTI is
above US$60/bbl.
Financial Liquidity
Total long-term debt at December 31, 2015 was $1.88 billion, comprised of a bank loan of $257 million and senior unsecured notes of $1.62 billion. The increase in total long-term debt at December 31, 2015, as compared to September 30, 2015, was primarily due to the amount of our
U.S.
dollar denominated debt increasing when converted to Canadian dollars.
We have unsecured revolving credit facilities consisting of an $800 million Canadian facility and a US$200 million
U.S.
facility. As at December 31, 2015, we had approximately $820 million in undrawn capacity on these facilities, which do not mature until June 2019.
Our bank lending syndicate agreed to relax the financial covenants contained in our unsecured revolving credit facilities twice during 2015. In each case, these amendments were obtained pro-actively, as we remained in compliance with our un-amended financial covenants throughout 2015. We will continue to manage our credit facilities and, if the outlook for commodity prices remains low or further deteriorates, we may seek further covenant relief. This could include granting our bank lending syndicate security over our assets. The indentures governing our senior unsecured notes provide that we may secure up to US$575 million of indebtedness in priority to the senior unsecured notes.
The following table lists the covenants under the revolving credit facilities and the senior unsecured notes, and our compliance therewith as at December 31, 2015.
Position as at
Covenant Description December 31, 2015
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Revolving Credit Facilities - Financial
Covenants Maximum Ratio
Senior Debt to Capitalization(1) (2) 0.65:1.00 0.44:1.00
Senior Debt to Bank EBITDA(1) (5) 5.25:1.00 2.97:1.00
Total Debt to Bank EBITDA(3) (5) 5.25:1.00 2.97:1.00
Senior Unsecured Notes - Debt Incurrence
Covenant Minimum Ratio
Fixed Charge Coverage(4) 2.50:1.00 5.63:1.00
Notes:
(1) "Senior debt" is defined as our principal amount of bank loan and long-
term notes.
(2) "Capitalization" is defined as the sum of our principal amount of bank
loan and long-term notes and shareholders' equity.
(3) "Total debt" is defined as the sum of our principal amount of bank loan
and long-term notes, and certain other liabilities identified in the
credit agreement.
(4) Fixed charge coverage is computed as the ratio of financing costs
(excluding accretion on asset retirement obligations) to trailing
twelve month adjusted income, as defined in the note indentures.
Adjusted income for the trailing twelve months ended December 31, 2015
was $629 million.
(5) Bank EBITDA is calculated based on terms and definitions set out in the
credit agreement which adjusts net income for financing costs, income
tax, certain specific unrealized and non-cash transactions (including
depletion, depreciation, amortization, exploration expenses, unrealized
gains and losses on financial derivatives and foreign exchange, and
stock based compensation) and acquisition and disposition activity
(excluding acquisition-related costs incurred) and is calculated based
on a trailing twelve month basis.
Outlook for 2016
As an industry, we continue to face unprecedented challenges due to the continued global oversupply of crude oil. We are committed to preserving financial liquidity through this downturn. In 2016, we are targeting capital expenditures to approximate funds from operations in order to minimize additional bank borrowings. In addition, we may contemplate minor non-core asset sales.
Our original 2016 production guidance was 74,000 to 78,000 boe/d with budgeted exploration and development expenditures of $325 to $400 million. This budget contemplated ramping up activity in
Canada
in the second half of 2016.
Based on the forward strip for the remainder of 2016, we do not plan to execute our heavy oil development program this year. We will forgo drilling 12 net wells at
Peace River
and 24 net wells at
Lloydminster
. In addition, we are proactively shutting-in approximately 7,500 bbl/d of low or negative margin heavy oil production in order to optimize the value of our resource base and maximize our funds from operations. Should netbacks improve, we have the ability to restart these wells within one month. We currently anticipate that this production will be brought back on-line mid-year.
In the Eagle Ford, we now anticipate a reduced pace of development in 2016 with approximately four to five drilling rigs (six drilling rigs in Q4/2015) and one to two frac crews (two frac crews in Q4/2015) working on our lands. At this pace, we anticipate bringing approximately 30 net wells on production in 2016 (previously 35 to 40 net wells).
We now anticipate 2016 exploration and development expenditures of $225 to $265 million, of which approximately 95% will be invested in the Eagle Ford. At the mid-point, this reflects a 33% reduction in capital spending for 2016 relative to our initial expectation of $325 to $400 million and a 53% reduction relative to 2015 capital expenditures of $521 million. Our 2016 program will remain flexible and allows for adjustments to spending based on changes in the commodity price environment.
Taking into account the shut-in heavy oil volumes and a reduced capital program, we have revised our production guidance range for 2016 to 68,000 to 72,000 boe/d. Our revised production guidance represents an approximate 5% reduction to our original guidance, excluding the impact of shut-in volumes. This compares to a 33% reduction in our capital budget, demonstrating the continued strong performance of our assets. Based on the mid-point of our production guidance range, approximately 55% of our production is expected to be generated in the Eagle Ford with the remaining 45% coming from our Canadian assets.
Production during the first quarter of 2016 is expected to average 73,000 to 75,000 boe/d.
Year-end 2015 Reserves
Baytex's year-end 2015 proved and probable reserves were evaluated by Sproule Unconventional Limited ("Sproule") and Ryder Scott Company, L.P. ("Ryder Scott"), both independent qualified reserves evaluators. Sproule prepared our reserves report by consolidating the Canadian properties evaluated by Sproule with
the United States
properties evaluated by Ryder Scott, in each case using Sproule's December 31, 2015 forecast price and cost assumptions. Ryder Scott also evaluated the possible reserves associated with our Eagle Ford assets. All of Baytex's oil and gas properties were evaluated or audited in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 "Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities" ("NI 51-101"). Reserves associated with our thermal heavy oil projects at
Peace River
, Gemini (
Cold Lake
) and
Kerrobert
have been classified as bitumen. Finding and development ("F&D") and finding, development and acquisition ("FD&A") costs are all reported inclusive of future development costs ("FDC"). Complete reserves disclosure will be included in our Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2015, which will be filed on or before March 30, 2016.
2015 Highlights
The addition of the Eagle Ford assets to our portfolio in 2014 provided us with exposure to one of the premier oil resource plays in
North America
. The high quality Eagle Ford assets provide the highest cash netbacks in our portfolio and contain a significant inventory of development prospects. In 2015, we focused our development activity in the Eagle Ford, where we directed 86% of our exploration and development expenditures. Our 2015 reserves report reflect this investment profile with significant growth in Eagle Ford reserves, offset by reduced heavy oil and thermal reserves.
-- Excluding thermal reductions, our proved plus probable reserves
increased 2% to 347 mmboe and we replaced 122% of production. Year-end
2015 proved plus probable reserves are comprised of 81% oil and NGL and
19% natural gas.
-- In the Eagle Ford, proved plus probable reserves increased 8% to 203
mmboe and we replaced 205% of production. From the time of acquisition
in June 2014, we have increased our proved plus probable reserves by
22%.
-- In aggregate, proved reserves decreased 3% to 275 mmboe and proved plus
probable reserves decreased 3% to 417 mmboe, due largely to shifting
thermal reserves to contingent resources at Cliffdale as activities fall
outside our five year investment plan and the removal of heavy oil
reserves due to reduced commodity prices and other technical revisions.
-- Proved developed producing ("PDP") reserves represent 40% of our proved
reserves (versus 43% at year-end 2014) and proved reserves represent 66%
of proved plus probable reserves (unchanged from year-end 2014).
-- We realized F&D costs of $7.68/boe on a proved plus probable basis, and
a three-year average (2013-2015) of $17.59/boe. Based on our 2015
operating netback (excluding financial derivative gains) of $15.78/boe,
we generated a strong recycle ratio of 2.1x in 2015.
-- We realized FD&A costs of $7.75/boe on a proved plus probable basis, and
a three-year average (2013-2015) of $26.33/boe. Based on our 2015
operating netback (excluding financial derivative gains) of $15.78/boe,
we generated a strong recycle ratio of 2.0x in 2015.
-- We achieved a significant reduction in our future development costs from
$3.4 billion at year-end 2014 to $3.0 billion at year-end 2015. This was
mainly attributable to decrease in drilling, completions and facility
capital costs, as well as the removal of capital associated with a
reduction in our thermal reserves.
-- Strong reserves life index ("RLI") of 9.3 years on a proved basis and
14.1 years on a proved plus probable basis, which is calculated using
annualized Q4/2015 production.
-- Using the December 31, 2015 independent reserves evaluation, the present
value of our reserves, discounted at 10% before tax, is estimated to be
$4.3 billion.
-- Our estimated net asset value at year-end 2015, discounted at 10%, is
estimated to be $11.05 per share. This is based on the estimated
reserves value of $4.3 billion plus a value for undeveloped acreage, net
of long-term debt, asset retirement obligations and working capital.
The following tables reconcile the change in reserves during 2015 by reserves category and operating area.
Total
(gross reserves, Eagle Heavy Canada Excluding
mmboe) Ford Oil Conventional Thermal Thermal Total
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proved Developed
Producing
December 31,
2014 54.8 45.2 10.9 110.9 9.8 120.7
Additions, net
of revisions 20.1 4.4 2.8 27.3 (8.4) 18.8
Production (14.6) (12.4) (3.1) (30.1) (0.9) (30.9)
----------------------------------------------------------
December 31,
2015 60.3 37.2 10.6 108.1 0.5 108.6
% Change 10% (18%) (3%) (3%) (95%) (10%)
Proved
December 31,
2014 167.3 81.5 16.4 265.2 18.1 283.3
Additions, net
of revisions 22.2 (0.7) 4.3 25.8 (3.4) 22.4
Production (14.6) (12.4) (3.1) (30.1) (0.9) (30.9)
----------------------------------------------------------
December 31,
2015 174.9 68.4 17.6 260.9 13.8 274.8
% Change 5% (16%) 7% (2%) (24%) (3%)
Proved Plus
Probable
December 31,
2014 188.0 122.1 30.4 340.5 91.1 431.6
Additions, net
of revisions 29.9 (2.9) 9.5 36.5 (20.6) 15.9
Production (14.6) (12.4) (3.1) (30.1) (0.9) (30.9)
----------------------------------------------------------
December 31,
2015 203.4 106.8 36.8 347.0 69.6 416.6
% Change 8% (13%) 21% 2% (24%) (3%)
Eagle Ford
-- The success of our 2015 capital development program and the significant
advancements made to delineate the multi-zone development potential of
our Sugarkane acreage, resulted in strong reserves additions in the
Eagle Ford. In the Eagle Ford, we replaced 205% of production, and
increased our proved plus probable reserves by 8% to 203.4 mmboe.
-- Ryder Scott assigned a total of 184 net proved undeveloped and probable
well locations in the year-end reserves report. Approximately 87% of the
well locations are targeting the Lower Eagle Ford formation with the
remainder attributable to the Austin Chalk. We have not assigned any
undeveloped locations to the Upper Eagle Ford formation in our proved
plus probable reserves.
-- In addition to our proved plus probable reserves, we have recognized 144
mmboe of possible reserves. The possible reserves reflect the
significant upside potential of the Austin Chalk and Upper Eagle Ford
formations. Possible reserves are those reserves that are less certain
to be recovered than probable reserves. There is a 10% probability that
the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the sum of proved
plus probable plus possible reserves
Heavy Oil
-- Reserves associated with our heavy oil assets are located at
Peace River
and
Lloydminster
. Proved plus probable heavy oil reserves at year-end
2015 totalled 106.8 mmboe, down 13% from 122.1 mmboe at year-end 2014.
In 2015, our development activity was significantly curtailed due to low
crude oil prices. At
Peace River
, we drilled 6 (6.0 net) cold horizontal
production wells and 5 (5.0 net) stratigraphic test wells. At
Lloydminster
, we drilled 26 (17.4 net) oil wells.
-- We realized 7.5 mmboe of reserves additions at
Peace River
and
Lloydminster
in 2015. These reserves additions were offset by the
removal of reserves due to the decrease in commodity prices since year-
end 2014 and other technical revisions. On a proved plus probable basis,
negative technical revisions amounted to 6.9 mmboe and a further 3.6
mmboe were removed due to lower commodity prices.
Conventional -
Canada
-- Reserves associated with our conventional light oil and natural gas
assets in
Canada
increased 21% to 36.8 mmboe, resulting in production
replacement of 306%. Reserves additions were driven by strong well
performance and the identification of additional drilling locations from
our liquids-rich natural gas development in the Pembina/O'Chiese region
of west-central
Alberta
.
Bitumen (Thermal)
-- Reserves associated with our thermal heavy oil projects at
Peace River
,
Gemini (
Cold Lake
) and
Kerrobert
are classified as bitumen, in
accordance with NI 51-101. Proved plus probable bitumen reserves at
year-end 2015 totalled 69.6 mmbbls, down 24% from 91.1 mmbbls at year-
end 2014, and now represent 17% of our proved plus probable reserves,
compared to 21% at year-end 2014 and 32% at year-end 2013.
-- During the third quarter of 2015, as crude oil prices continued to
deteriorate, we suspended operations at our Cliffdale Cyclical Steam
Stimulation project. With no production at Cliffdale at year-end 2015,
7.0 mmbbls of proved developed producing reserves were reclassified as
proved developed non-producing. In addition, we transferred 19.3 mmbbls
of proved plus probable reserves associated with Pads 3 and 4 to
contingent resources as this development is now expected to occur
outside our five-year business plan.
-- At Gemini, we decommissioned our steam-assisted gravity drainage pilot
project in the second quarter of 2015. Through the pilot we confirmed
reservoir production capacity to support a commercial 5,000 bbl/d
project. Any subsequent sanctioning decision will be considered in the
context of the project economics in a higher commodity price
environment. Our proved plus probable bitumen reserves at Gemini were
unchanged at year-end 2015 at 43.4 mmbbls.
Petroleum and Natural Gas Reserves as at December 31, 2015
The following table sets forth our gross and net reserves volumes at December 31, 2015 by product type and reserves category using Sproule's forecast prices and costs. Please note that the data in the table may not add due to rounding.
CANADA Forecast Prices and Costs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light and Medium
Heavy Oil Bitumen Oil
------------------------------------------------------
Gross(1) Net(2) Gross(1) Net(2) Gross(1) Net(2)
Reserves Category (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proved
Developed Producing 34,199 25,847 529 485 2,758 2,522
Developed Non-
Producing 3,469 2,910 7,801 6,917 45 40
Undeveloped 27,362 22,498 5,429 4,522 99 118
------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved 65,030 51,254 13,758 11,925 2,902 2,681
Probable 37,883 29,642 55,882 43,421 2,420 2,100
------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved Plus
Probable 102,913 80,896 69,640 55,346 5,323 4,781
------------------------------------------------------
CANADA Forecast Prices and Costs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Natural Gas Conventional
Liquids Natural Gas Oil Equivalent(3)
------------------------------------------------------
Gross(1) Net(2) Gross(1) Net(2) Gross(1) Net(2)
Reserves Category (mbbl) (mbbl) (mmcf) (mmcf) (mboe) (mboe)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proved
Developed Producing 1,364 1,005 56,397 46,976 48,248 37,688
Developed Non-
Producing 4 3 349 327 11,377 9,925
Undeveloped 1,376 1,089 35,254 29,511 40,142 33,145
------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved 2,745 2,096 92,000 76,814 99,767 80,758
Probable 3,081 2,285 85,538 70,169 113,523 89,143
------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved Plus
Probable 5,826 4,381 177,538 146,982 213,290 169,900
------------------------------------------------------
UNITED STATES Forecast Prices and Costs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Natural Gas
Tight Oil Liquids Shale Gas
------------------------------------------------------
Gross(1) Net(2) Gross(1) Net(2) Gross(1) Net(2)
Reserves Category (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl) (mmcf) (mmcf)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proved
Developed Producing 20,403 15,003 25,812 19,072 56,753 41,948
Developed Non-
Producing - - - - - -
Undeveloped 28,812 21,155 57,897 42,491 138,014 101,130
------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved 49,215 36,158 83,710 61,563 194,767 143,078
Probable 4,551 3,343 16,263 11,904 40,038 29,357
------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved Plus
Probable 53,765 39,501 99,972 73,467 234,805 172,435
Possible(4)(5) 16,920 12,505 88,902 65,436 210,894 155,206
------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved Plus
Probable Plus
Possible 70,685 52,006 188,874 138,903 445,699 327,641
------------------------------------------------------
UNITED STATES Forecast Prices and Costs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conventional
Natural Gas Oil Equivalent(3)
------------------------------------
Gross(1) Net(2) Gross(1) Net(2)
Reserves Category (mmcf) (mmcf) (mboe) (mbbl)
----------------------------------------------------------
Proved
Developed Producing 27,859 20,502 60,317 44,483
Developed Non-
Producing - - - -
Undeveloped 29,021 21,330 114,548 84,056
------------------------------------
Total Proved 56,880 41,832 174,865 128,539
Probable 5,991 4,406 28,486 20,874
------------------------------------
Total Proved Plus
Probable 62,871 46,238 203,350 149,413
Possible(4)(5) 20,049 14,799 144,312 106,276
------------------------------------
Total Proved Plus
Probable Plus
Possible 82,920 61,037 347,662 255,689
------------------------------------
TOTAL Forecast Prices and Costs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Light and Medium
Heavy Oil Bitumen Oil
------------------------------------------------------
Gross(1) Net(2) Gross(1) Net(2) Gross(1) Net(2)
Reserves Category (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proved
Developed Producing 34,199 25,847 529 485 2,758 2,522
Developed Non-
Producing 3,469 2,910 7,801 6,917 45 40
Undeveloped 27,362 22,498 5,429 4,522 99 118
------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved 65,030 51,254 13,758 11,925 2,902 2,681
Probable 37,883 29,642 55,882 43,421 2,420 2,100
------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved Plus
Probable 102,913 80,896 69,640 55,346 5,323 4,781
Possible(4)(5) - - - - - -
------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved Plus
Probable Plus
Possible 102,913 80,896 69,640 55,346 5,323 4,781
------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL Forecast Prices and Costs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Natural Gas
Tight Oil Liquids Shale Gas
------------------------------------------------------
Gross(1) Net(2) Gross(1) Net(2) Gross(1) Net(2)
Reserves Category (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl) (mmcf) (mmcf)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proved
Developed Producing 20,403 15,003 27,176 20,077 56,753 41,948
Developed Non-
Producing - - 4 3 - -
Undeveloped 28,812 21,155 59,273 43,580 138,014 101,130
------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved 49,215 36,158 86,454 63,659 194,767 143,078
Probable 4,551 3,343 19,344 14,188 40,038 29,357
------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved Plus
Probable 53,765 39,501 105,798 77,848 234,805 172,435
Possible(4)(5) 16,920 12,505 88,902 65,436 210,894 155,206
------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved Plus
Probable Plus
Possible 70,685 52,006 194,699 143,284 445,699 327,641
------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL Forecast Prices and Costs
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conventional
Natural Gas Oil Equivalent(3)
------------------------------------
Gross(1) Net(2) Gross(1) Net(2)
Reserves Category (mmcf) (mmcf) (mboe) (mboe)
----------------------------------------------------------
Proved
Developed Producing 84,256 67,477 108,565 82,171
Developed Non-
Producing 349 327 11,377 9,925
Undeveloped 64,275 50,841 154,690 117,201
------------------------------------
Total Proved 148,880 118,646 274,633 209,297
Probable 91,530 74,575 142,008 110,017
------------------------------------
Total Proved Plus
Probable 240,409 193,220 416,640 319,313
Possible(4)(5) 20,049 14,799 144,312 106,276
------------------------------------
Total Proved Plus
Probable Plus
Possible 260,458 208,019 560,952 425,589
------------------------------------
Notes:
(1) "Gross" reserves means the total working and royalty interest share of
remaining recoverable reserves owned by Baytex before deductions of
royalties payable to others.
(2) "Net" reserves means Baytex's gross reserves less all royalties payable
to others.
(3) Oil equivalent amounts have been calculated using a conversion rate of
six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil. BOEs may
be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion
ratio of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil is
based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable
at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the
wellhead.
(4) Possible reserves are those reserves that are less certain to be
recovered than probable reserves. There is a 10% probability that the
quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the sum of proved
plus probable plus possible reserves.
(5) The total possible reserves include only possible reserves from the
Eagle Ford assets. The possible reserves associated with the Canadian
properties have not been evaluated.
Reserves Reconciliation
The following table reconciles the year-over-year changes in our gross reserves volumes by product type and reserves category using Sproule's forecast prices and costs. Please note that the data in table may not add due to rounding.
Reconciliation of Gross Reserves (1)(2)
By Principal Product Type
Forecast Prices and Costs
------------------------------------------------------------
Heavy Oil Bitumen
------------------------------------------------------------
Proved + Proved +
Proved Probable Probable Proved Probable Probable
Gross Reserves
Category (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
December 31,
2014 78,145 39,777 117,922 18,058 73,054 91,112
Extensions 1,121 4,592 5,713 - - -
Infill Drilling 929 620 1,549 - - -
Improved
Recoveries - 175 175 - - -
Technical
Revisions (475) (6,677) (7,151) (3,225) (17,194) (20,419)
Discoveries 11 4 15 - - -
Acquisitions 1,515 511 2,026 - - -
Dispositions (977) (922) (1,900) - - -
Economic Factors (3,341) (196) (3,537) (211) 22 (189)
Production (11,898) - (11,898) (864) - (864)
------------------------------------------------------------
December 31,
2015 65,030 37,883 102,913 13,758 55,882 69,640
------------------------------------------------------------
Light and Medium Crude Oil Tight Oil
------------------------------------------------------------
Proved + Proved +
Proved Probable Probable Proved Probable Probable
Gross Reserves
Category (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
December 31,
2014 3,736 2,496 6,232 49,333 4,546 53,879
Extensions - - - - - -
Infill Drilling 1 - 1 4,971 473 5,444
Improved
Recoveries - - - - - -
Technical
Revisions 347 (333) 15 989 (328) 661
Discoveries - - - - - -
Acquisitions - - - - - -
Dispositions - - - - - -
Economic Factors (521) 257 (265) (457) (140) (597)
Production (660) - (660) (5,622) - (5,622)
------------------------------------------------------------
December 31,
2015 2,902 2,420 5,323 49,215 4,551 53,765
------------------------------------------------------------
Natural Gas Liquids Shale Gas
------------------------------------------------------------
Proved + Proved +
Proved Probable Probable Proved Probable Probable
Gross Reserves
Category (mbbl) (mbbl) (mbbl) (mmcf) (mmcf) (mmcf)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
December 31,
2014 81,583 12,753 94,336 185,604 22,543 208,147
Extensions 49 428 477 - - -
Infill Drilling 13,339 9,152 22,491 28,783 22,560 51,342
Improved
Recoveries - - - - - -
Technical
Revisions (1,740) (2,871) (4,611) (7,017) (4,759) (11,776)
Discoveries - - - - - -
Acquisitions - - - - - -
Dispositions - - - - - -
Economic Factors (521) (119) (640) (762) (305) (1,067)
Production (6,256) - (6,256) (11,841) - (11,841)
------------------------------------------------------------
December 31,
2015 86,454 19,344 105,798 194,767 40,038 234,805
------------------------------------------------------------
Conventional Natural Gas Oil Equivalent(3)
------------------------------------------------------------
Proved + Proved +
Proved Probable Probable Proved Probable Probable
Gross Reserves
Category (mmcf) (mmcf) (mmcf) (mboe) (mboe) (mboe)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
December 31,
2014 128,762 71,891 200,653 283,249 148,365 431,614
Extensions 1,263 10,107 11,369 1,381 6,704 8,085
Infill Drilling 8,573 1,463 10,036 25,465 14,249 39,714
Improved
Recoveries - - - - 175 175
Technical
Revisions 38,990 10,593 49,583 1,225 (26,430) (25,204)
Discoveries - - - 11 4 15
Acquisitions - - - 1,515 511 2,026
Dispositions - - - (977) (922) (1,900)
Economic Factors (7,057) (2,525) (9,582) (6,354) (648) (7,002)
Production (21,651) - (21,651) (30,882) - (30,882)
------------------------------------------------------------
December 31,
2015 148,880 91,529 240,409 274,633 142,008 416,640
------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
(1) "Gross" reserves means the total working and royalty interest share of
remaining recoverable reserves owned by Baytex before deductions of
royalties payable to others.
(2) Reserves information as at December 31, 2015 and 2014 is prepared in
accordance with NI 51-101.
(3) Oil equivalent amounts have been calculated using a conversion rate of
six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil. BOEs may
be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion
ratio of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil is
based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable
at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the
wellhead.
Reserves Life Index
The following table sets forth our reserves life index, which is calculated by dividing our proved and proved plus probable reserves at year-end 2015 by Q4/2015 production.
Q4/2015 Actual Reserves Life Index (years)
--------------------------------
Proved Plus
Production Proved Probable
------------------------------------------------
Oil and NGL (bbl/d) 65,659 9.1 14.1
Natural Gas (mcf/d) 92,708 10.2 14.0
------------------------------------------------
Oil Equivalent (boe/d) 81,110 9.3 14.1
------------------------------------------------
Capital Program Efficiency
Based on the evaluation of our petroleum and natural gas reserves prepared in accordance with NI 51-101 by our independent qualified reserves evaluators, the efficiency of our capital programs (including FDC) is summarized in the following table.
Three-Year
Total /
Average
2015 2014 2013 2013 - 2015
------------------------------------------------
Capital Expenditures ($
millions)
Exploration and
development $ 521.0 $ 766.1 $ 550.9 $ 1,838.0
Acquisitions (net of
dispositions) 1.6 2,545.1 (39.1) 2,507.7
------------------------------------------------
Total $ 522.7 $ 3,311.2 $ 511.8 $ 4,345.7
------------------------------------------------
Change in Future Development
Costs - Proved ($ millions)
Exploration and
development $ (397.9) $ (248.5) $ 300.8 $ (345.6)
Acquisitions (net of
dispositions) 6.0 1,312.9 (39.3) 1,279.6
------------------------------------------------
Total $ (391.9) $ 1,064.4 $ 261.5 $ 934.0
------------------------------------------------
Change in Future Development
Costs - Proved plus
Probable ($ millions)
Exploration and
Development $ (399.9) $ (102.0) $ 393.7 $ (108.2)
Acquisitions (net of
dispositions) 0.5 1,210.5 (39.3) 1,171.7
------------------------------------------------
Total $ (399.4) $ 1,108.5 $ 354.4 $ 1,063.5
------------------------------------------------
Proved Reserves Additions
(mboe)
Exploration and
development 21,729 83,515 38,117 143,362
Acquisitions (net of
dispositions) 537 68,824 (1,160) 68,201
------------------------------------------------
Total 22,266 152,339 36,957 211,563
------------------------------------------------
Proved plus Probable
Reserves Additions (mboe)
Exploration and
development 15,782 33,598 48,936 98,316
Acquisitions (net of
dispositions) 126 108,515 (1,540) 107,101
------------------------------------------------
Total 15,908 142,113 47,396 205,417
------------------------------------------------
F&D costs ($/boe) (1 )
Proved $ 5.67 $ 6.20 $ 22.34 $ 10.41
Proved plus probable $ 7.68 $ 19.77 $ 19.30 $ 17.59
FD&A costs ($/boe) (2)
Proved $ 5.88 $ 28.72 $ 20.92 $ 24.96
Proved plus probable $ 7.75 $ 31.10 $ 18.28 $ 26.33
Ratios (based on proved plus
probable reserves)
Production replacement (3) 52% 497% 227% 255%
Recycle ratio (4) 2.1x 1.8x 1.7x 1.9x
Notes:
(1) F&D costs are calculated as total exploration and development
expenditures (excluding acquisition and divestitures) divided by
reserves additions from exploration and development activity.
(2) FD&A costs are calculated as total capital expenditures (including
acquisition and divestitures) divided by total reserves additions.
(3) Production Replacement ratio is calculated as total reserves additions
(including acquisitions and divestitures) divided by annual production.
(4) Recycle ratio is calculated as operating netback divided by F&D costs
(proved plus probable including FDC). Operating netback is calculated
as revenue (excluding realized hedging gains and losses) minus
royalties, production and operating expenses and transportation
expenses.
Net Present Value of Reserves (Forecast Prices and Costs)
The following table summarizes Sproule and Ryder Scott's estimate of the net present value before income taxes of the future net revenue attributable to our reserves using Sproule's forecast prices and costs (and excluding the impact of any hedging activities). Please note that the data in the table may not add due to rounding.
Summary of Net Present Value of Future Net Revenue
As at December 31, 2015
Forecast Prices and Costs
Before Income Taxes and Discounted at (%/year)
CANADA
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Reserves
Category ($000s) ($000s) ($000s) ($000s) ($000s)
------------------------------------------------------------
Proved
Developed
Producing $ 708,303 $ 611,709 $ 534,278 $ 473,010 $ 424,180
Developed Non-
Producing 305,817 210,792 150,901 111,743 85,246
Undeveloped 738,519 537,449 397,466 297,941 225,503
------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved 1,752,639 1,359,950 1,082,644 882,694 734,929
Probable 2,621,469 1,437,508 875,496 573,723 395,191
------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved
Plus Probable $ 4,374,108 $ 2,797,458 $ 1,958,141 $ 1,456,417 $ 1,130,120
------------------------------------------------------------
UNITED STATES
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Reserves
Category ($000s) ($000s) ($000s) ($000s) ($000s)
------------------------------------------------------------
Proved
Developed
Producing $ 1,696,780 $ 1,283,191 $ 1,027,554 $ 857,701 $ 738,088
Developed Non-
Producing
Undeveloped 2,596,337 1,661,238 1,108,896 761,605 532,125
------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved 4,293,117 2,944,429 2,136,450 1,619,306 1,270,213
Probable 830,523 400,056 216,176 127,677 80,458
------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved
Plus Probable 5,123,640 3,344,485 2,352,627 1,746,984 1,350,670
Possible (1) 3,899,317 2,447,383 1,659,634 1,186,615 880,408
------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved
Plus Probable
Plus Possible
(1) $ 9,022,957 $ 5,791,868 $ 4,012,261 $ 2,933,599 $ 2,231,078
------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Reserves
Category ($000s) ($000s) ($000s) ($000s) ($000s)
------------------------------------------------------------
Proved
Developed
Producing $ 2,405,083 $ 1,894,899 $ 1,561,832 $ 1,330,711 $ 1,162,267
Developed Non-
Producing 305,817 210,792 150,901 111,743 85,246
Undeveloped 3,334,856 2,198,688 1,506,362 1,059,546 757,628
------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved 6,045,756 4,304,379 3,219,095 2,502,000 2,005,142
Probable 3,451,992 1,837,564 1,091,673 701,400 475,648
------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved
Plus Probable 9,497,748 6,141,943 4,310,767 3,203,401 2,480,790
Possible (1)(2) 3,899,317 2,447,383 1,659,634 1,186,615 880,408
------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved
Plus Probable
Plus Possible
(1)(2) $13,397,065 $ 8,589,326 $ 5,970,402 $ 4,390,016 $ 3,361,198
------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Possible reserves are those reserves that are less certain to be
recovered than probable reserves. There is a 10% probability that the
quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the sum of proved
plus probable plus possible reserves.
(2) The total possible reserves include only possible reserves from the
Eagle Ford assets. The possible reserves associated with the Canadian
properties have not been evaluated.
The net present values noted in the table above do not include any value for future net revenue which may ultimately be generated from the contingent resources discussed later in this press release.
Sproule Forecast Prices and Costs
The following table summarizes the forecast prices used by Sproule in preparing the estimated reserves volumes and the net present values of future net revenues at December 31, 2015.
Western
Canadian Canada
WTI Cushing Light Sweet Select Henry Hub
Year US$/bbl C$/bbl C$/bbl US$/MMbtu
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2015 act. 48.80 57.45 46.09 2.63
2016 45.00 55.20 45.26 2.25
2017 60.00 69.00 57.96 3.00
2018 70.00 78.43 65.88 3.50
2019 80.00 89.41 75.11 4.00
2020 81.20 91.71 77.03 4.25
2021 82.42 93.08 78.19 4.31
2022 83.65 94.48 79.36 4.38
2023 84.91 95.90 80.55 4.44
2024 86.18 97.34 81.76 4.51
2025 87.48 98.80 82.99 4.58
2026 88.79 100.28 84.23 4.65
Thereafter Escalation rate of 1.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Operating
Cost Capital Cost
AECO-C Inflation Inflation Exchange
Year Spot C$/MMbtu Rate %/Yr Rate %/Yr Rate $US/$Cdn
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2015 act. 2.70 1.4 (19.7) 0.783
2016 2.25 0.0 0.0 0.750
2017 2.95 0.0 4.0 0.800
2018 3.42 1.5 4.0 0.830
2019 3.91 1.5 4.0 0.850
2020 4.20 1.5 1.5 0.850
2021 4.28 1.5 1.5 0.850
2022 4.35 1.5 1.5 0.850
2023 4.43 1.5 1.5 0.850
2024 4.51 1.5 1.5 0.850
2025 4.59 1.5 1.5 0.850
2026 4.67 1.5 1.5 0.850
Thereafter Escalation rate of 1.5%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Future Development Costs
The following table sets forth future development costs deducted in the estimation of the future net revenue attributable to the reserves categories noted below (using forecast prices and costs).
Proved Plus
CANADA Proved Reserves Probable Reserves
Year ($000s) ($000s)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016 $ 61,711 $ 85,939
2017 178,007 225,264
2018 161,646 359,531
2019 50,505 236,404
2020 12,469 113,829
Remaining 19,602 319,189
--------------------------------------------
Total (Undiscounted) $ 483,940 $ 1,340,155
--------------------------------------------
Proved Plus
UNITED STATES Proved Reserves Probable Reserves
Year ($000s) ($000s)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016 $ 157,342 $ 167,145
2017 256,592 267,412
2018 224,399 271,612
2019 518,791 540,938
2020 319,128 351,414
Remaining 26,531 37,251
--------------------------------------------
Total (Undiscounted) $ 1,502,783 $ 1,635,772
--------------------------------------------
Proved Plus
TOTAL Proved Reserves Probable Reserves
Year ($000s) ($000s)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2016 $ 219,053 $ 253,084
2017 434,599 492,676
2018 386,045 631,143
2019 569,297 777,342
2020 331,597 465,243
Remaining 46,133 356,440
--------------------------------------------
Total (Undiscounted) $ 1,986,723 $ 2,975,927
--------------------------------------------
Undeveloped Land Holdings
The following table sets forth our undeveloped land holdings as at December 31, 2015.
Undeveloped Acres
--------------------------------------------
Gross Net
--------------------------------------------
Canada
--------------------------------
Alberta 580,616 513,765
British Columbia 660 26
Saskatchewan 139,163 132,990
--------------------------------------------
Total Canada 720,438 646,781
United States
--------------------------------
Texas 10,855 8,409
--------------------------------------------
Total Company 731,294 655,190
--------------------------------------------
We estimate the value of our net undeveloped land holdings at December 31, 2015 to be approximately $110 million. This internal evaluation generally represents the estimated replacement cost of our undeveloped land. In determining replacement cost, we analyzed land sale prices paid at Provincial Crown and State land sales for the properties in the vicinity of our undeveloped land holdings, less an allowance for near-term expiries.
Net Asset Value
Our estimated net asset value is based on the estimated net present value of all future net revenue from our reserves, before tax, as estimated by the Company's independent reserves engineers, Sproule and Ryder Scott, at year-end, plus the estimated value of our undeveloped acreage, less asset retirement obligations, long-term debt and net working capital. This calculation can vary significantly depending on the oil and natural gas price assumptions used by the independent reserves evaluators.
In addition, this calculation does not consider "going concern" value and assumes only the reserves identified in the reserves reports with no further acquisitions or incremental development, including development of possible reserves or contingent resources. As we execute our capital programs, we expect to convert possible reserves and contingent resources to reserves which could result in an increase in booked proved plus probable reserves.
The following table sets forth our net asset value as at December 31, 2015.
Net Asset Value - Forecast Prices and Costs (before
tax)
($ millions except
share amounts,
discounted at) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total net present
value of proved plus
probable reserves
(before tax) $ 9,498 $ 6,142 $ 4,311 $ 3,203 $ 2,481
Undeveloped acreage
(1) 110 110 110 110 110
Asset retirement
obligations (2) (425) (104) (44) (30) (32)
Long-term debt (1,880) (1,880) (1,880) (1,880) (1,880)
Net working capital (170) (170) (170) (170) (170)
-------------------------------------------------------
Net Asset Value $ 7,133 $ 4,098 $ 2,327 $ 1,233 $ 541
Net Asset Value per
Share (3) $ 33.87 $ 19.46 $ 11.05 $ 5.85 $ 2.42
(1) Undeveloped acreage value generally represents the estimated
replacement cost of our undeveloped land.
(2) Asset retirement obligations may not equal the amount shown on the
statement of financial position as a portion of these costs are already
reflected in the present value of proved plus probable reserves and the
discount rates applied differ.
(3) Based on 210.6 million common shares outstanding as at December 31,
2015.
Contingent Resources Assessment
We commissioned Sproule to conduct an evaluation of our contingent resources in the
Peace River Area
and certain properties in
Northeast Alberta
. We also commissioned Ryder Scott to conduct an audit of our internal evaluation of our contingent resources in the Eagle Ford Area of
Texas
. Both assessments were effective December 31, 2015, and were prepared in accordance with the Canadian definitions, standards and procedures contained in the COGE Handbook and NI 51-101.
There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the contingent resources or that we will produce any portion of the volumes currently classified as contingent resources. The recovery and resource estimates provided herein are estimates. Actual contingent resources (and any volumes that may be reclassified as reserves) and future production from such contingent resources may be greater than or less than the estimates provided herein.
The contingent resources described below represent our gross interests and are a best estimate. A "best estimate" is considered to be the best estimate of the quantity of resources that will actually be recovered. It is equally likely that the actual quantities recovered will be greater or less than the best estimate. Those resources identified in the best estimate have a 50% probability that the actual quantities recovered will equal or exceed the estimate. The contingent resources herein are presented as deterministic cumulative best estimate volumes.
Our contingent resources fall within the development pending and development unclarified sub-classes, which are defined as follows:
-- Development Pending - are economic contingent resources that have a high
chance of development. Contingencies are directly influenced by the
developer, are actively being pursued and resolution is expected in a
reasonable time period.
-- Development Unclarified - are contingent resources that have a chance of
development which is difficult to assess, and have an economic status
which is undetermined. Projects are currently under evaluation and
therefore contingencies are not clearly defined. Progress is expected
within a reasonable time period.
Development Pending
The following table presents the company gross best estimate of our contingent resources for the assessed properties that fall within the development pending project maturity sub-class, using Sproule's December 31, 2015 forecast prices and costs.
Development Pending (Best Estimate) (1)
------------------------------------------------------
Risked NPV
Discounted at
10%
Unrisked Chance of Risked (before tax)
(mmboe) Development (mmboe) ($MM)
------------------------------------------------------
Canada
----------------------
Peace River 19 81% 16 $90
Northeast Alberta 3 86% 3 $10
------------------------------------------------------
Total Canada 23 19 $100
United States
----------------------
Eagle Ford 74 80% 59 $459
------------------------------------------------------
Total Company 96 78 $560
(1) Numbers may not add due to rounding.
The estimates of risked net present value ("NPV") of future net revenues of the development pending contingent resources are preliminary assessments and are provided to assist the reader in reaching an opinion on the quality of the resources and likelihood of our proceeding with the required investment. It includes contingent resources that are considered too uncertain with respect to the chance of development to be classified as reserves. There is uncertainty that the risked NPV of future net revenue will be realized.
The following table summarizes the status of our risked development pending contingent resources.
Development Pending - Status
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Capital to Timing of
reach First
Product Project Commercial Commercial Recovery
Type Status Production(1) Production Technology
Peace Pre-
River Bitumen Development $136 2019-2021 CSS
Horizontal
drilling and
cold
Northeast Pre- production
Alberta Heavy Oil Development $54 2021-2027 methods
Horizontal
multi-stage
fracturing
Tight Oil, and
Shale Gas and Pre- production
Eagle Ford NGL Development $1,114 2016-2024 operations
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1) Un-risked capital.
The principal risks that would influence the development of the Peace River and
Northeast Alberta
development pending contingent resources are: the timing of regulatory approvals to expand the project areas, the results of delineation drilling and seismic activity necessary for project development, the ability of these projects to compete for capital against our other projects, our corporate commitment to the timing of development, and the commodity price levels affecting the economic viability bitumen and heavy oil production in
Alberta
. The principal risks specific to the development of the Eagle Ford development pending contingent resources are: our reliance on the Operator's commitment of capital and timing to the development, the ability of these projects to compete for capital against our other projects, and the possibility of inter-well communication from infill drilling.
Development Unclarified
Our development unclarified contingent resources are conceptual project scenarios with no specific company defined development plan in the near term. The following table presents the company gross best estimate of our contingent resources for the assessed properties that fall within the development unclarified project maturity sub-classes.
Development Unclarified (Best Estimate) (1)
---------------------------------------------
Unrisked Chance of Risked
(mmboe) Development (mmboe)
---------------------------------------------
Canada
-------------------------------
Peace River 813 61% 492
Northeast Alberta 141 48% 68
---------------------------------------------
Total Canada 954 560
United States
-------------------------------
Eagle Ford 61 50% 31
---------------------------------------------
Total Company 1,015 590
(1) Numbers may not add due to rounding.
In addition to the risks identified for the development pending sub-class, the projects in the Peace River and
Northeast Alberta
development unclarified sub-class are also subject to risks pertaining to commercial productivity of the reservoirs. The geological complexity and variability in these reservoirs may require the implementation of pilot projects to test the viability of SAGD and CSS recovery technologies. The risks outlined for the contingent resources in the Eagle Ford development pending sub-class also apply to the development unclarified sub-class but are greater in magnitude.
Additional disclosures related to our contingent resources will be included in Appendix A to our Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2015, which will be filed on or before March 30, 2016.
Additional Information
Our audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2015 and the related Management's Discussion and Analysis of the operating and financial results can be accessed immediately on our website at www.baytexenergy.com and will be available shortly through SEDAR at www.sedar.com and EDGAR at www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conference Call Today
9:00 a.m. MST (11:00 a.m. EST)
Baytex will host a conference call today, March 3, 2016, starting at 9:00am
MST (11:00am EST). To participate, please dial 416-340-2219 or toll free in
North America
1-866-225-2055 and toll free international 1-800-6578-9868.
Alternatively, to listen to the conference call online, please enter
http://www.gowebcasting.com/7259 in your web browser.
An archived recording of the conference call will be available until March
10, 2016 by dialing toll free 1-800-408-3053 within
North America
(
Toronto
local dial 905-694-9451, International toll free 1-800-3366-3052) and
entering reservation code 9337255. The conference call will also be archived
on the Baytex website at http://www.baytexenergy.com/.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Advisory Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
In the interest of providing Baytex's shareholders and potential investors with information regarding Baytex, including management's assessment of Baytex's future plans and operations, certain statements in this press release are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and "forward-looking information" within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation (collectively, "forward-looking statements"). In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as "anticipate", "believe", "continue", "could", "estimate", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "may", "objective", "ongoing", "outlook", "potential", "project", "plan", "should", "target", "would", "will" or similar words suggesting future outcomes, events or performance. The forward-looking statements contained in this press release speak only as of the date thereof and are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
Specifically, this press release contains forward-looking statements relating to but not limited to: our business strategies, plans and objectives; our exploration and development capital budget for 2016; our plan to shut-in certain heavy oil production, our belief that this action will preserve the value of our resource base and maximize our funds from operations and our expectations for the period of time that such production will remain shut-in and the time required to re-start such production; our Eagle Ford shale play, including our assessment of the performance of wells drilled in the Eagle Ford in 2015, initial production rates from new wells, and our plans to use "stack and frac" pilots to target three zones in the Eagle Ford formation in addition to the overlying Austin Chalk formation; the existence, operation and strategy of our risk management program for commodity prices, heavy oil differentials and interest and foreign exchange rates; the proportion of our anticipated oil and gas production that is hedged and the effectiveness of such hedges in protecting our funds from operations; our liquidity and financial capacity; expectations regarding our ability to comply with the financial covenants under our revolving credit facilities and senior unsecured notes; the possibility that we may seek further covenant relief from, and grant security over our assets to, our bank lending syndicate; our target for 2016 capital expenditures to approximate funds from operations in order to minimize additional bank borrowings; the possibility of non-core asset sales; our expectations for annual average production rate and exploration and development capital budget for 2016 (both original and revised); our expectation that we will not proceed with our 2016 heavy oil development program; the number of drilling rigs and frac crews working on our Eagle Ford lands during 2016; the portion of our 2016 capital budget to be invested in the Eagle Ford; the number of net wells to be brought on production in the Eagle Ford during 2016; the geographic breakdown of our 2016 annual production; our expectations for the average production rate in Q1/2016; the number of net proved undeveloped and probable well locations in the Eagle Ford assigned by our independent reserves evaluator; our reserves life index; the net present value before income taxes of the future net revenue attributable to our reserves; forecast prices for oil and natural gas; forecast inflation and exchange rates; future development costs; the value of our undeveloped land holdings; and our estimated net asset value. In addition, information and statements relating to reserves are deemed to be forward-looking statements, as they involve implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the reserves described exist in quantities predicted or estimated, and that the reserves can be profitably produced in the future.
These forward-looking statements are based on certain key assumptions regarding, among other things: petroleum and natural gas prices and differentials between light, medium and heavy oil prices; well production rates and reserve volumes; our ability to add production and reserves through our exploration and development activities; capital expenditure levels; our ability to borrow under our credit agreements; the receipt, in a timely manner, of regulatory and other required approvals for our operating activities; the availability and cost of labour and other industry services; interest and foreign exchange rates; the continuance of existing and, in certain circumstances, proposed tax and royalty regimes; our ability to develop our crude oil and natural gas properties in the manner currently contemplated; and current industry conditions, laws and regulations continuing in effect (or, where changes are proposed, such changes being adopted as anticipated). Readers are cautioned that such assumptions, although considered reasonable by Baytex at the time of preparation, may prove to be incorrect.
Actual results achieved will vary from the information provided herein as a result of numerous known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors. Such factors include, but are not limited to: the volatility of oil and natural gas prices; further declines or an extended period of the currently low oil and natural gas prices; failure to comply with the covenants in our debt agreements; our credit facilities not providing sufficient liquidity; refinancing risk for existing debt and debt service costs; uncertainties in the credit markets may restrict the availability of credit or increase the cost of borrowing; a downgrade of our credit ratings; risks associated with properties operated by third parties; changes in government regulations that affect the oil and gas industry; changes in environmental, health and safety regulations; the implementation of strategies for reducing greenhouse gases; variations in interest rates and foreign exchange rates; risks associated with our hedging activities; the cost of developing and operating our assets; risks related to the accessibility, availability, proximity and capacity of gathering, processing and pipeline systems; risks associated with the exploitation of our properties and our ability to acquire reserves; changes in income tax or other laws or government incentive programs; uncertainties associated with estimating petroleum and natural gas reserves; our inability to fully insure against all risks; risks that our counterparties will default; risks associated with acquiring, developing and exploring for oil and natural gas and other aspects of our operations; risks associated with large projects or expansion of our activities; risks related to heavy oil projects; depletion of our reserves; risks associated with the ownership of our securities, including changes in market-based factors and the discretionary nature of dividend payments; risks for
United States
and other non-resident shareholders, including the ability to enforce civil remedies, differing practices for reporting reserves and production, additional taxation applicable to non-residents and foreign exchange risk; and other factors, many of which are beyond our control. These and additional risk factors are discussed in our Annual Information Form, Annual Report on Form 40-F and Management's Discussion and Analysis for the year ended December 31, 2015, as filed with Canadian securities regulatory authorities and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The above summary of assumptions and risks related to forward-looking statements has been provided in order to provide shareholders and potential investors with a more complete perspective on Baytex's current and future operations and such information may not be appropriate for other purposes.
There is no representation by Baytex that actual results achieved will be the same in whole or in part as those referenced in the forward-looking statements and Baytex does not undertake any obligation to update publicly or to revise any of the included forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable securities law.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Funds from operations is not a measurement based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles ("GAAP") in
Canada
, but is a financial term commonly used in the oil and gas industry. Funds from operations represents cash generated from operating activities adjusted for financing costs, changes in non-cash operating working capital and other operating items. Baytex's determination of funds from operations may not be comparable with the calculation of similar measures for other entities. Baytex considers funds from operations a key measure of performance as it demonstrates its ability to generate the cash flow necessary to fund capital investments and future dividends to shareholders. The most directly comparable measures calculated in accordance with GAAP are cash flow from operating activities and net income.
Net debt is not a measurement based on GAAP in
Canada
. We define net debt as the sum of monetary working capital (which is current assets less current liabilities (excluding non-cash items such as unrealized gains or losses on financial derivatives, assets held for sale and liabilities related to assets held for sale)), the principal amount of long-term debt and bank loan. We believe that this measure assists in providing a more complete understanding of our cash liabilities.
Bank EBITDA is not a measurement based on GAAP in
Canada
. We define Bank EBITDA as our consolidated net income attributable to shareholders before interest, taxes, depletion and depreciation, and certain other non-cash items as set out in our credit agreements governing our unsecured revolving credit facilities. This measure is used to measure compliance with certain financial covenants.
Operating netback is not a measurement based on GAAP in
Canada
, but is a financial term commonly used in the oil and gas industry. Operating netback is equal to product revenue less royalties, production and operating expenses and transportation expenses dividend by barrels of oil equivalent sales volume for the applicable period. Our determination of operating netback may not be comparable with the calculation of similar measures for other entities. We believe that this measure assists in characterizing our ability to generate cash margin on a unit of production basis.
Advisory Regarding Oil and Gas Information
The reserves information contained in this press release has been prepared in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 "Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities" of the Canadian Securities Administrators ("NI 51-101"). Complete NI 51-101 reserves disclosure will be included in our Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2015, which will be filed on or before March 30, 2016. Listed below are cautionary statements that are specifically required by NI 51-101:
-- Where applicable, oil equivalent amounts have been calculated using a
conversion rate of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel
of oil. BOEs may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe
conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel
of oil is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily
applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency
at the wellhead.
-- With respect to finding and development costs, the aggregate of the
exploration and development costs incurred in the most recent financial
year and the change during that year in estimated future development
costs generally will not reflect total finding and development costs
related to reserves additions for that year.
-- This press release contains estimates of the net present value of our
future net revenue from our reserves. Such amounts do not represent the
fair market value of our reserves.
This press release contains estimates as of December 31, 2015 of the volumes of "contingent resources" for our oil resource plays in
Peace River
and Northeast areas of
Alberta
and the Sugarkane area in
South Texas
. These estimates were prepared by independent qualified reserves evaluators.
"Contingent resource" is not, and should not be confused with, petroleum and natural gas reserves. "Contingent resource" is defined in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook as: "those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology or technology under development, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Contingencies may include factors such as economic, legal, environmental, political and regulatory matters or a lack of markets. It is also appropriate to classify as contingent resource the estimated discovered recoverable quantities associated with a project in the early evaluation stage." The outstanding contingencies applicable to our disclosed contingent resources do not include economic contingencies. Economic contingent resources are those resources that are currently economically recoverable based on specific forecasts of commodity prices and costs.
The primary contingencies which currently prevent the classification of the contingent resource as reserves consist of: preparation of firm development plans, including determination of the specific scope and timing of the project; project sanction; stakeholder and regulatory approvals; access to required services and field development infrastructure; oil prices; future drilling program and testing results; further reservoir delineation and studies; facility design work; limitations to development based on adverse topography or other surface restrictions; and the uncertainty regarding marketing and transportation of petroleum from development areas.
There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the contingent resources or that we will produce any portion of the volumes currently classified as contingent resources. The estimates of contingent resources involve implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the resources described exists in the quantities predicted or estimated and that the resources can be profitably produced in the future.
The recovery and resource estimates provided herein are estimates only. Actual contingent resources (and any volumes that may be reclassified as reserves) and future production from such contingent resources may be greater than or less than the estimates provided herein.
References herein to average 30-day initial production rates and other short-term production rates are useful in confirming the presence of hydrocarbons, however such rates are not determinative of the rates at which such wells will commence production and decline thereafter and are not indicative of long term performance or of ultimate recovery. While encouraging, readers are cautioned not to place reliance on such rates in calculating aggregate production for us or the assets for which such rates are provided. A pressure transient analysis or well-test interpretation has not been carried out in respect of all wells. Accordingly, we caution that the test results should be considered to be preliminary.
Notice to United States Readers
The petroleum and natural gas reserves contained in this press release have generally been prepared in accordance with Canadian disclosure standards, which are not comparable in all respects to
United States
or other foreign disclosure standards. For example, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") requires oil and gas issuers, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only "proved reserves", but permits the optional disclosure of "probable reserves" and "possible reserves" (each as defined in SEC rules). Canadian securities laws require oil and gas issuers disclose their reserves in accordance with NI 51-101, which requires disclosure of not only "proved reserves" but also "probable reserves" and permits the optional disclosure of "possible reserves". Additionally, NI 51-101 defines "proved reserves", "probable reserves" and "possible reserves" differently from the SEC rules. Accordingly, proved, probable and possible reserves disclosed in this press release may not be comparable to
United States
standards. Probable reserves are higher risk and are generally believed to be less likely to be accurately estimated or recovered than proved reserves. Possible reserves are higher risk than probable reserves and are generally believed to be less likely to be accurately estimated or recovered than probable reserves.
In addition, under Canadian disclosure requirements and industry practice, reserves and production are reported using gross volumes, which are volumes prior to deduction of royalty and similar payments. The SEC rules require reserves and production to be presented using net volumes, after deduction of applicable royalties and similar payments.
Moreover, Baytex has determined and disclosed estimated future net revenue from its reserves using forecast prices and costs, whereas the SEC rules require that reserves be estimated using a 12-month average price, calculated as the arithmetic average of the first-day-of-the-month price for each month within the 12-month period prior to the end of the reporting period. As a consequence of the foregoing, Baytex's reserve estimates and production volumes in this press release may not be comparable to those made by companies utilizing
United States
reporting and disclosure standards.
We also included in this press release estimates of contingent resources. Contingent resources represent the quantity of petroleum and natural gas estimated to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology or technology under development, but which do not currently qualify as reserves or commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Contingencies may include factors such as economic, legal, environmental, political and regulatory matters or a lack of markets. The SEC does not permit the inclusion of estimates of resource in reports filed with it by
United States
companies.
All amounts in this press release are stated in Canadian dollars unless otherwise specified.
Baytex Energy Corp.
Baytex Energy Corp. is an oil and gas corporation based in
Calgary, Alberta
. The company is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Eagle Ford in
the United States
. Approximately 81% of Baytex's production is weighted toward crude oil and natural gas liquids. Baytex's common shares trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol BTE.
For further information about Baytex, please visit our website at www.baytexenergy.com.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
Baytex Energy Corp.
Brian Ector
Senior Vice President
Capital Markets and Public Affairs
Toll Free Number: 1-800-524-5521
investor@baytexenergy.com
Source: Baytex Energy Corp.
DISCLOSURE: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not represent the views of equities.com. Readers should not consider statements made by the author as formal recommendations and should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. To read our full disclosure, please go to: http://www.equities.com/disclaimer
