Seems like just yesterday it was Q3 reporting season. But time flies—quarter by quarter—in the public company universe.
EnerCom, Inc. has compiled third quarter earnings per share, revenue, EBITDA and cash flow per share analyst consensus estimates on 112 E&P and 82 Oilfield Service companies in the EnerCom database.
Download EnerCom’s full chart of estimates.
The median OilServices company earnings estimate for the quarter ending December 31, 2017, is ($0.01) per share compared to actual earnings per share of ($0.04) and ($0.15) for Q3’17 and Q2’17, respectively. The median E&P company earnings estimate for the quarter ending December 31, 2017, is $0.07 per share compared to actual earnings per share of ($0.03) and $0.06 for Q3’17 and Q2’17, respectively.
Energy Commodities
Crude Oil
U.S. oil consumption in October 2017 was 19.8 MMBOPD, up 1.1% from the previous month and up 0.9% from the same month in 2016. For October 2017, U.S. crude oil production was 9.6 MMBOPD, up 1.8% from September production and up 9.6% from a year ago. The average spot price for WTI in December 2017 was $57.88 per barrel, up 2.2% from the prior month and up 16.3% from the same month last year. The five-year strip at January 17, 2018 was $52.77 per barrel.
The median analyst estimate at the beginning of January for 2018 NYMEX oil was $55.66 per barrel with a high of $66.00 and a low of $44.00 per barrel.
Natural Gas
For October 2017, total natural gas consumption was 65.7 Bcf/d, up 2.1% from the month prior and 5.7% higher than the same month last year. Total natural gas production in October 2017 was 75.1 Bcf/d, up 0.2% from the month prior and up 5.2% from the same month last year.
At 2.8 Tcf (week ending 1/5/18), natural gas storage was 12.1% below the five-year historical average, and 22.0% below the five-year high. The average spot price for Henry Hub in December 2017, was $2.81 per MMBtu, 6.6% than the previous month and 21.7% lower than in December of last year. The five-year strip at January 17, 2018 was $3.129 per MMBtu.
The median analyst estimate at the beginning of January for 2018 NYMEX Henry Hub was $3.18 per MMBtu with a high of $3.50 and a low of $2.80 per MMBtu.
Rig Count – U.S. Rig Count Increases
The U.S. rig count stood at 928 for the week ended January 12, 2017, up 15 from the week ended January 5, 2017, and an increase of 280 from the same week last year.
For the week ended January 12, 2017, there were 805 horizontal rigs active in the United States, an increase of 49.9% from the same week a year ago. By play and as compared to the same week last year, rig count changes for the week ended January 12, 2017, include Haynesville (+18 rigs), Fayetteville Shale (-1 rig), Woodford Shale (+41 rigs), Appalachian Basin (+17 rigs), Williston Basin (+14 rigs), Eagle Ford Shale (+23 rigs), DJ Niobrara (+4 rigs) and Permian Basin (+135 rigs).
Equity Markets
From EnerCom’s E&P Database: For January 12, 2017, year-to-date large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap and micro-cap E&P stocks changed by 8%, 5%, 10% and 16%, respectively. Year-to-date, oil-weighted and gas-weighted companies moved 10.9% and 2.7%, respectively.
By region as of January 12, 2017, year-to-date, Bakken, Midcontinent, Marcellus, Gulf of Mexico, Canada, and Diversified stocks changed by 21%, 9, 4%, 26%, -1%, and 11% respectively.
From EnerCom’s Oil Service’s Database: As of January 12, 2017, year-to-date, OilService’s large-cap and mid-cap stocks changed by 9%, 17%, respectively, while small-cap and micro-cap stocks changed by 15%, and 12% respectively.
Expected Themes for Conference Calls
Below are some themes and thoughts we expect to take prominence on this quarter’s conference calls.
E&P Companies:
- Activity levels in light of current oil prices
- Returning cash to shareholders
- Full cycle returns
- Reserves revisions
- Liquidity, capital market funding and debt maturities
- Size of drilling inventory
- Service cost inflation
- Completions availability
- Potential for M&A activity
- Hedge position
- Operating efficiencies
OilService companies:
- Global economic outlook
- U.S. vs international activity
- Rig count projections
- Pricing trends
- Oilfield service equipment utilization rates and the potential for added capacity
- Equipment remaining in storage
- Service cost inflation
- Margin trends
- Equipment newbuild potential
- Availability of experienced crews
- Potential for selling directly to E&P companies
