(Assessment covers the City and State of New York, New England,
and Eastern Canada)
The Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc. (NPCC) today released the
results of its annual summer reliability assessment. The assessment
concludes, based on thousands of simulations covering a wide range of
system and weather conditions that the NPCC Region will have an adequate
supply of electricity this summer.
The overall NPCC forecast for coincident electricity peak demand has
decreased by about 600 MW from last year’s forecast to 103,548 MW.
“This continues an almost decade long trend of overall flat or declining
peak demand forecast due to energy efficiency and conservation
initiatives as well as the significantly increasing role of
behind-the-meter photovoltaic resources in New England and New York,”
said Edward Schwerdt, President and CEO of NPCC.
Since last summer, NPCC’s installed net capacity has increased by
approximately 2,200 MW to 163,538 MW. Capacity additions consist of the
Napanee natural gas-fired unit in Ontario and dual-fuel capability units
located in New England. The remaining new capacity consists of primarily
wind and solar units in Ontario, New York and New England. Going
forward, the effective and efficient integration of distributed energy
resources (such as energy storage) will be an increasingly important
part of the overall reliability and security objectives of NPCC.
“In addition, the expected increase in NPCC’s capacity offsets the
planned retirement of the Pilgrim nuclear plant in New England and the
long-term outage of the Cayuga coal unit in New York,” stated Schwerdt.
For New York City, New York State, New England and Ontario, an adequate
supply of electricity is forecast. The winter peaking Québec and
Canadian Maritime Provinces are expected to meet forecasted electricity
demand by a wide margin.
The assessment considered an array of severe system conditions including
the impact of: 1) extended maintenance; 2) reductions in demand-response
programs; 3) reductions in the ability to import power from neighboring
Regions; 4) transmission constraints; 5) unavailability or inoperability
of key facilities regardless of cause; and 6) extreme weather
characterized by wide-spread and prolonged heat waves with high humidity
and temperatures.
Established operating procedures are available, if needed, to maintain
reliability for the unlikely simultaneous occurrence of severe system
and extreme weather conditions.
A summary of the NPCC 2019 Summer Reliability Assessment is available
at: www.npcc.org
on the Home Page under the “Latest News” header.
About NPCC
The NPCC geographic region includes the State of New York and the six
New England states as well as the Canadian provinces of Ontario, Québec
and the Maritime provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Overall,
NPCC covers an area of nearly 1.2 million square miles, populated by
more than 56 million people. In total, from a net energy for load
perspective, NPCC is approximately 46% U.S. and 54% Canadian. With
regard to Canada, approximately 70% of Canadian net energy for load is
within the NPCC Region.
One of NPCC’s responsibilities is to coordinate international electric
power grid reliability for Northeastern North America. Toward that end,
NPCC annually performs comprehensive seasonal assessments of electricity
supply and demand reliability for eastern Canada, New England and the
City and State of New York. These assessments require months of detailed
preparation and are performed with the participation of regional
electricity power grid operators and planners.
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