SINGAPORE – Buyers are expected to cancel up to 10 liquefied natural gas cargoes (LNG) for October loading from the United States, the lowest number in months as prices in Asia and Europe recover, several trade sources said on Friday.
The exact number of cancellations was not immediately clear but several trade sources estimated a range of three to 10, much lower than the 25 cargoes likely cancelled for loading in September and the 40 to 45 likely cancelled in July and August.
Rising spot prices in Asia and Europe and expectations of increasing gas demand during winter is the likely cause of the drop, traders said.
“At current prices, the majority of U.S. projects are in the money but there is still time for buyers to take a decision to cancel cargoes with some projects,” a Singapore-based LNG trader said.
“With more U.S. cargoes expected to be delivered into Asia, this could push down prices again and buyers may consider cancelling after all.”
Asia spot prices for cargoes to be delivered into North Asia rebounded to a multi-month high this week, with warm weather expected to boost draw down gas inventory to meet electricity demand while prolonged maintenance in a production train in Australia is curbing supply.
Dutch TTF gas prices have also increased sharply this month due to lower Russian gas flows, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.
“We expect winter LNG spot prices to rise to $5-6 per mmbtu as the market tightens, Bernstein analysts said in a note on Wednesday.
“With U.S. having a cash breakeven of $4-5 per mmbtu, this should allow U.S. LNG to flow with positive cash margins.”
U.S. cargo flows to China are also expected to increase, traders said, adding that this was purely driven by economics and not politics.
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