Article and Analysis by Bloomberg
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will stick to its strategy of favoring market share over prices when it meets in Vienna on June 5.
That means the 12 nations will maintain a group production target of 30 million barrels a day, according to all but one of 34 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg last month.
The increase of about 40 percent in oil prices from a six-year low in January has vindicated OPEC’s strategy to keep pumping into a supply glut and force higher-cost producers to curb output.
Following are the latest comments from OPEC members and analysts. The respective shares of the group’s supply are based on April levels. The estimates for the price per barrel each member needs to balance its budget are from the International Monetary Fund unless stated otherwise.
ALGERIA * Price needed: $111 * Share of OPEC production: 3.6 percent * Algeria’s attempt to coordinate a response to falling oil prices after a meeting with Angola and Nigeria in March didn’t result in an agreement. The new energy minister Salah Khebri is “expected to be restrained at his first OPEC meeting,” Citigroup said ANGOLA * Price needed: $98 (ING) * Share of OPEC production: 5.3 percent * Angola is among the biggest losers from lower prices and has little scope to boost output, said Bloomberg First Word Oil Strategist Julian Lee * Seeks price of $80 a barrel, Minister of Petroleum Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said June 3, adding nation’s output may rise to 2 million barrels a day in 2016 ECUADOR * Price needed: $117 (ING) * Share of OPEC production: 1.7 percent * Ecuador lost $2.2 billion in expected revenue from September to March following the oil slump, while prices fell below production costs for “many oil fields” in March, President Rafael Correa said last month IRAN * Price needed: $93 * Share of OPEC production: 8.8 percent * Iran cannot give up its share of the oil market after others replaced some of its exports, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said Thursday. “They have to return to the prior situation so that they can make room for Iran.” * Minister also said he saw “nothing significant” happening Friday. * Iran could raise production by 1 million barrels a day within six months of international sanctions being lifted, Zanganeh said June 3 IRAQ * Price needed: $71 * Share of OPEC production: 12% * Iraq plans to boost exports by 100,000 barrels a day this month, Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said June 3; comfortable oil prices would be $75-$80 KUWAIT * Price needed: $47 * Share of OPEC production: 9% * OPEC’s decision in November to keep its output ceiling unchanged was a good one, Oil Minister Ali Al-Omair said in an interview with Bloomberg TV Thursday * OPEC will keep expanding oil-production capacity, with Kuwait raising output to 4 million barrels a day by 2020, Al- Omair said LIBYA * Price needed: $215 * Share of OPEC production: 1.7% * Libya is struggling to return production to levels achieved before the civil war started in 2011, according to Bloomberg Intelligence; monthly output has swung between 850,000 to 250,000 barrels a day over the past year amid conflict between two rival governments, data compiled by Bloomberg show. * Libya favors OPEC keeping its current output limit, Abdourhman Ataher Al-Ahirish, head of the nation’s delegation, said in an interview in Vienna Thursday NIGERIA * Price needed: $119 (ING) * Share of OPEC production: 6.3% * Nigeria has been unable to increase production sufficiently to offset the fall in oil prices, according to Bloomberg Intelligence; output rose 80,000 barrels a day to 1.98 million in April, the first gain this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show * The struggle for market share among oil producers is “likely to become even fiercer,” Joseph Dawha, Managing Director of Nigerian National Petroleum Corp., said in Vienna Thursday QATAR * Price needed: $59 * Share of OPEC production: 2.2% * Qatar is the OPEC member least dependent on oil and has the lowest crude-production costs, making it well placed to withstand a period of oversupply and low prices, according to Bloomberg Intelligence * Oil demand is improving, Energy and Industry Minister Mohammed Al Sada said June 3 SAUDI ARABIA * Price needed: $103 * Share of OPEC production: 33% * The world’s largest oil exporter boosted crude production for a fourth month in April to the highest level in more than three decades, escalating its quest to preserve market share amid a surge in non-OPEC production * Efforts to focus on market share are working, Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said June 1 in Vienna * “There is a surplus” in the global oil market, and it will take time for conditions to rebalance; “Demand is picking up, supply is slowing.” UNITED ARAB EMIRATES * Price needed: $73 * Share of OPEC production: 9.2% * The U.A.E. sided with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar in November, rebuffing pleas from other members to cut output to support prices * That decision helped reduce the glut in the global oil market and there are reasons to be optimistic about demand, Energy Minister Suhail Mohammed Al Mazrouei said Thursday VENEZUELA * Price needed: $121 (ING) * Share of OPEC production: 7.9% * Venezuela led a faction of OPEC members calling for an output cut in November, but its “poor history” of compliance with OPEC quotas undermines the position, Citigroup said. * The global market is oversupplied by as much as 2.5 million barrels a day, Oil Minister Asdrubal Chavez said June 3 * President Nicolas Maduro said last month it was in his country’s and OPEC’s best interests for prices to stabilize at $100 in the medium term
