(Oil & Gas 360) – Over the past few decades, the Assad dictatorship in Syria, supported by Iran and Russia, played a pivotal role in Middle Eastern instability.
Syria was the channel by which Russia established a naval base on the Mediterranean and extended its influence to the heart of the Middle East and supported its military in sub-Saharan Africa.
Syria was also the avenue used by Iran to extend its threats and offensive capability to Hezbollah in Lebanon to attack Israel. Iraq, caught between Syria and Iran, was also an easy subject of continuous disruption. China worked with Iran to establish influence in the region; its networks are torn apart.
The fall of the Assad regime’s half-century dictatorship in Syria is not just a defeat for him; it is a sudden power shift for the entire region. It severely reduced Iran’s dominance.
Russian forces in Syria were left hanging in the wind and were quickly withdrawn along with their high-tech weaponry to Benghazi, Libya. They are expected to evacuate the naval base in February, also moving to Benghazi.
US and Israeli airstrikes against weapons and other supply sites further reduced near-term military threats from Syria.
The Middle East has long been a region shaped by geopolitical rivalries, complex alliances, and shifting power structures. Now, suddenly Iran, Russia, and China had a major setback; their strength and influence in the region is severely crippled.
Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah, has had its leadership decimated, its arms caches largely destroyed, and its re-supply routes through Syria cut.
Hezbollah’s dominance gave Lebanon years of political instability and destroyed its economy. With Hezbollah thus severely weakened, Lebanon has an opportunity to assert more control over its own territory, but this is not guaranteed. Lebanon is vulnerable to internal and external forces.
A power vacuum has emerged in the Middle East. It cannot be expected to last long. Someone will move in; it should be the US.
This is a prime opportunity for the US to establish a position of leadership and influence in the region. The US should establish an assertive presence in Lebanon in support of the Lebanese Defense Force and to supplement the UN peacekeeper force (UNIFIL) which has recently demonstrated its uselessness, and hopefully strengthen the fragile cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah.
The US presence must be a large enough military force to re-assure allies, intimidate adversaries, influence not-sures, deter outsiders, and counter China’s efforts to re-build its influence. The Russian move to Benghazi increases its support of General Haftar’s eastern government which controls a significant part of Libya’a oil production.
Although its logistical support routes to Africa must be re-built, the base in Benghazi will also strengthen Russian efforts in sub-Saharan Africa and puts a strong Russian base just south of the heart of Europe.
A strong US force in Lebanon, besides helping to stabilize that area, will be astride Russian supply routes to Africa and out-flank this Russian position there. It is noted Eisenhower moved such a large force successfully into Beirut in 1958 to counter Russian moves and stabilized Lebanon for 20 years.
In a recent Wall Street Journal commentary Walter Russell Mead described recent Middle East events as, thankfully, the end of the catastrophic Obama era of uncertain, feckless, US Middle East policy. The US must act decisively to secure its interests.
By oilandgas360.com contributor Dr. Charles Kohlhaas.
“The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Oil & Gas 360.
